BirdAnalyst
Species · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Mountain Plover

CharadriidaeShorebirdsAnarhynchus montanus

Mountain Plover has collapsed: down 78% on the route-weighted index since 1970.

-78%Since 1970TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
96RoutesSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
56Years SurveyedYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

About the Mountain Plover

The Mountain Plover (Anarhynchus montanus) is a North American member of the Plovers & Lapwings (Charadriidae). In this analysis it is grouped with the shorebirds.

Size
6–12 in long (15–30 cm) — a small to medium shorebird (typical for the family)
Habitat
Shorelines, mudflats, beaches, flooded fields and wet meadows.
Diet
Invertebrates probed or picked from mud, sand and shallow water.
Range
Recorded on 96 Breeding Bird Survey routes across 8 states, most concentrated in the Shortgrass Prairie.
Family
Charadriidae · Shorebirds

Notable Mountain Plover TrendsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Mountain Plover. See the full index history below.

Mountain Plover Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Mountain Plover is projected to stay roughly flat through 2029, near 0.01 (95% range 0.00–0.02). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±92%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

n/aChange by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.01Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–0.0295% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±92%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Mountain Plover is projected to stay roughly flat through 2029, near 0.01 (95% range 0.00–0.02). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±92%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19682029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20250.010.000.02
20260.010.000.02
20270.010.000.02
20280.010.000.02
20290.010.000.02

Where the Mountain Plover Is Detected

BBS routes recording Mountain Plover, sized by most recent count.

Mountain Plover Population Trend by State

Mountain Plover population trend by state.
TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →Baseline yearThe first year of the smoothed window the trend is measured from. An earlier baseline means a longer record stands behind the number.Full methodology →Survey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
Colorado-96%197042
Kansasinsufficient datan/a3
Montanainsufficient datan/a5
Nebraskainsufficient datan/a1
New Mexico-94%197111
Oklahoma+3%19923
Texasinsufficient datan/a3
Wyoming-79%197028

Mountain Plover Population Trend by Region

Bird Conservation Regions are the ecological unit for trends.

Mountain Plover population trend by Bird Conservation Region.
TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →Baseline yearThe first year of the smoothed window the trend is measured from. An earlier baseline means a longer record stands behind the number.Full methodology →Survey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
Northern Rockies-82%197023
Southern Rockies / Colorado Plateau-78%197711
Shortgrass Prairie-92%197054

Mountain Plover Conservation Status

Our route-weighted index shows it down about 78% since 1970. Many shorebirds have declined steeply, reflecting pressure on the coastal and wetland stopovers they depend on.

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22. Trend is a route-weighted relative-abundance index, not an absolute population.