BirdAnalyst
Species · Oklahoma · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Mountain Plover Population Trend in Oklahoma

All statesShorebirds

Mountain Plover in Oklahoma has held roughly steady: up 3% on the route-weighted index since 1992.

+3%Since 1992TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
3Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
23YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Mountain Plover Trends in OklahomaNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Mountain Plover in Oklahoma. See the full index history below.

Mountain Plover Population Forecast in Oklahoma

If the recent trend holds, Mountain Plover in Oklahoma is projected to fall about 13% by 2028 — from 0.17 in 2023 to a central estimate of 0.14 (95% range 0.02–0.27). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±204%, with 60% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-13%Change by 2028TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.14Projected 2028 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.02–0.2795% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±204%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Mountain Plover in Oklahoma is projected to fall about 13% by 2028 — from 0.17 in 2023 to a central estimate of 0.14 (95% range 0.02–0.27). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±204%, with 60% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19682028
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20240.140.010.27
20250.140.010.27
20260.140.010.27
20270.140.010.27
20280.140.020.27

Mountain Plover Survey Routes in Oklahoma

Routes recording Mountain Plover in Oklahoma.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Keyes520231992
Felt120051968
Hooker120142014

Mountain Plover Population Trend in Other States

coloradokansasmontananebraskanew-mexicotexaswyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.