BirdAnalyst
Species · Colorado · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Mountain Plover Population Trend in Colorado

All statesShorebirds

Mountain Plover in Colorado has collapsed: down 96% on the route-weighted index since 1970.

-96%Since 1970TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
42Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
56YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Mountain Plover Trends in ColoradoNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc declinecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Mountain Plover has collapsed in Colorado: down 96% on the route-weighted index since 1970.

Mountain Plover Population Forecast in Colorado

If the recent trend holds, Mountain Plover in Colorado is projected to fall about 100% by 2029 — from 0.08 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.00 (95% range 0.00–0.85). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±320%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-100%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.00Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–0.8595% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±320%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Mountain Plover in Colorado is projected to fall about 100% by 2029 — from 0.08 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.00 (95% range 0.00–0.85). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±320%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19682029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20250.000.000.85
20260.000.000.85
20270.000.000.85
20280.000.000.85
20290.000.000.85

Mountain Plover Survey Routes in Colorado

Routes recording Mountain Plover in Colorado.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Ellicott1120132009
Gordon Creek719981993
Mica Butte619821968
Gilpin520111970
Wildhorse L520001998
Campo420182018
Sheridan Lak420141997
Grover420211993
Lamar320241983
Edison320231988
Pritchett320171995
San Luis320222022
Boyero220171979
Two Buttes220151980
Hudson219991990
Mesita220242005
Crowley220031989
Antonito220041998
Stoneham219941992
Limon220242016
Kirk220062006
Briggsdale120231968
Rockport120052002
Last Chance120061968
Abarr119981998

Mountain Plover Population Trend in Other States

kansasmontananebraskanew-mexicooklahomatexaswyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.