BirdAnalyst
Species · Wyoming · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Mountain Plover Population Trend in Wyoming

All statesShorebirds

Mountain Plover in Wyoming has collapsed: down 79% on the route-weighted index since 1970.

-79%Since 1970TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
28Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
49YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Mountain Plover Trends in WyomingNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc declinecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Mountain Plover has collapsed in Wyoming: down 79% on the route-weighted index since 1970.

Mountain Plover Population Forecast in Wyoming

If the recent trend holds, Mountain Plover in Wyoming is projected to stay roughly flat through 2029, near 0.03 (95% range 0.00–0.21). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±65.5%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

n/aChange by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.03Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–0.2195% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±65.5%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Mountain Plover in Wyoming is projected to stay roughly flat through 2029, near 0.03 (95% range 0.00–0.21). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±65.5%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19682029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20250.040.000.22
20260.040.000.22
20270.040.000.22
20280.040.000.21
20290.030.000.21

Mountain Plover Survey Routes in Wyoming

Routes recording Mountain Plover in Wyoming.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Sussex620062006
Cheyenne619801980
Bear Creek320241968
Thunder Basin320132013
Lysite319961996
Buford219791977
Clark220192000
Gebo220142014
Seedskadee219981998
Bairoil219881988
Walcott219921991
Rock River220061990
Prior Flats120062004
Midvale119991994
Ervay120191981
Brookhurst119711971
Mckinnon119801977
Frannie120141999
Arminto120151988
Newcastle119921992
Sweetwater120241984
Lamont120031988
Pathfinder119841984
Shirley120221980
Green River119821977

Mountain Plover Population Trend in Other States

coloradokansasmontananebraskanew-mexicooklahomatexas

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.