BirdAnalyst
Species · New Mexico · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Mountain Plover Population Trend in New Mexico

All statesShorebirds

Mountain Plover in New Mexico has collapsed: down 94% on the route-weighted index since 1971.

-94%Since 1971TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
11Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
49YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Mountain Plover Trends in New MexicoNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc declinecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Mountain Plover has collapsed in New Mexico: down 94% on the route-weighted index since 1971.

Mountain Plover Population Forecast in New Mexico

If the recent trend holds, Mountain Plover in New Mexico is projected to stay roughly flat through 2026, near 0.00 (95% range 0.00–0.90). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±549.8%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

n/aChange by 2026TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.00Projected 2026 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–0.9095% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±549.8%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Mountain Plover in New Mexico is projected to stay roughly flat through 2026, near 0.00 (95% range 0.00–0.90). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±549.8%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19682026
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20220.000.000.90
20230.000.000.90
20240.000.000.90
20250.000.000.90
20260.000.000.90

Mountain Plover Survey Routes in New Mexico

Routes recording Mountain Plover in New Mexico.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Sedan420042004
Corona East319951995
Wagon Mound319781970
Datil219941994
Farley220181979
Grenville220211968
Rosebud220051995
Torreon119971977
Fence Lake120161975
Raton119941994
Roswell119771968

Mountain Plover Population Trend in Other States

coloradokansasmontananebraskaoklahomatexaswyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.