BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 10 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Mountain Plover In Northern Rockies

All regionsNorthern RockiesShorebirds

Mountain Plover in Northern Rockies has collapsed: down 82% on the route-weighted index since 1970.

-82%Since 1970TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
23Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
48YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc declinecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Mountain Plover has collapsed in Northern Rockies: down 82% on the route-weighted index since 1970.

Mountain Plover In Northern Rockies Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Mountain Plover in Northern Rockies is projected to stay roughly flat through 2029, near 0.01 (95% range 0.00–0.11). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±46.7%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

n/aChange by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.01Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–0.1195% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±46.7%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Mountain Plover in Northern Rockies is projected to stay roughly flat through 2029, near 0.01 (95% range 0.00–0.11). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±46.7%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19682029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20250.020.000.12
20260.010.000.12
20270.010.000.11
20280.010.000.11
20290.010.000.11

Routes In Northern Rockies

Routes recording Mountain Plover in Northern Rockies.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Bear CreekWYOMING32024
LysiteWYOMING31996
ClarkWYOMING22019
GeboWYOMING22014
BairoilWYOMING21988
WalcottWYOMING21992
Rock RiverWYOMING22006
SeedskadeeWYOMING21998
BoulderMONTANA11970
MidvaleWYOMING11999
ErvayWYOMING12019
MckinnonWYOMING11980
FrannieWYOMING12014
ArmintoWYOMING12015
SweetwaterWYOMING12024
LamontWYOMING12003
PathfinderWYOMING11984
ShirleyWYOMING12022
Green RiverWYOMING11982
RelianceWYOMING11984
WamsutterWYOMING12006
HarmonyWYOMING12022
Prior FlatsWYOMING12006

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.