BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 18 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Mountain Plover In Shortgrass Prairie

All regionsShortgrass PrairieShorebirds

Mountain Plover in Shortgrass Prairie has collapsed: down 92% on the route-weighted index since 1970.

-92%Since 1970TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
54Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
56YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc declinecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Mountain Plover has collapsed in Shortgrass Prairie: down 92% on the route-weighted index since 1970.

Mountain Plover In Shortgrass Prairie Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Mountain Plover in Shortgrass Prairie is projected to fall about 100% by 2029 — from 0.07 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.00 (95% range 0.00–0.62). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±110.2%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-100%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.00Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–0.6295% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±110.2%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Mountain Plover in Shortgrass Prairie is projected to fall about 100% by 2029 — from 0.07 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.00 (95% range 0.00–0.62). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±110.2%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19682029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20250.000.000.62
20260.000.000.62
20270.000.000.62
20280.000.000.62
20290.000.000.62

Routes In Shortgrass Prairie

Routes recording Mountain Plover in Shortgrass Prairie.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
EllicottCOLORADO112013
UlyssesKANSAS92017
Gordon CreekCOLORADO71998
Mica ButteCOLORADO61982
CheyenneWYOMING61980
GilpinCOLORADO52011
Wildhorse LCOLORADO52000
KeyesOKLAHOMA52023
CampoCOLORADO42018
GroverCOLORADO42021
Sheridan LakCOLORADO42014
SedanNEW-MEXICO42004
ChanningTEXAS41986
LamarCOLORADO32024
EdisonCOLORADO32023
PritchettCOLORADO32017
Wagon MoundNEW-MEXICO31978
BoyeroCOLORADO22017
Two ButtesCOLORADO22015
HudsonCOLORADO21999
CrowleyCOLORADO22003
StonehamCOLORADO21994
LimonCOLORADO22024
KirkCOLORADO22006
FarleyNEW-MEXICO22018

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.