BirdAnalyst
Species · Oregon · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Cassin's Finch Population Trend in Oregon

All statesGeneralists

Cassin's Finch in Oregon has risen sharply: up 58% on the route-weighted index since 1970.

+58%Since 1970TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
70Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
56YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Cassin's Finch Trends in OregonNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Cassin's Finch has risen sharply in Oregon: up 58% on the route-weighted index since 1970.

Cassin's Finch Population Forecast in Oregon

If the recent trend holds, Cassin's Finch in Oregon is projected to fall about 15% by 2029 — from 3.4 in 2024 to a central estimate of 2.9 (95% range 0.37–5.5). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±23.6%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-15%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
2.9Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.37–5.595% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±23.6%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Cassin's Finch in Oregon is projected to fall about 15% by 2029 — from 3.4 in 2024 to a central estimate of 2.9 (95% range 0.37–5.5). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±23.6%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19682029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20252.90.345.5
20262.90.355.5
20272.90.355.5
20282.90.365.5
20292.90.375.5

Cassin's Finch Survey Routes in Oregon

Routes recording Cassin's Finch in Oregon.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Barnhouse3920241998
Silvies3820241994
Monument3120241993
Silver Creek2820241984
Donelly 22220242018
Newbridge1720241992
Hash Rock1720241983
Donnelly1720061994
Ochoco1619821972
Barnes Val1619871984
Mount Vernon1520241986
Zumwalt1420051995
Lapham Res.1420241992
Black Mtn.1420041993
Deschutes1220221979
Paisley1220241973
Bly1120011973
Eagle Creek920221993
Bly 2820242007
Ochoco820241993
Flora720231986
Troy720241992
Lakeview720241996
Eagle Rock619791971
Howard Mdws.620241992

Cassin's Finch Population Trend in Other States

arizonacaliforniacoloradoidahomontananevadanew-mexicosouth-dakotautahwashingtonwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.