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Species · Utah · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Cassin's Finch Population Trend in Utah

All statesGeneralists

Cassin's Finch in Utah has surged: up 124% on the route-weighted index since 1970.

+124%Since 1970TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
52Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
49YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Cassin's Finch Trends in UtahNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Cassin's Finch has surged in Utah: up 124% on the route-weighted index since 1970.

Cassin's Finch Population Forecast in Utah

If the recent trend holds, Cassin's Finch in Utah is projected to rise about 13% by 2029 — from 1.1 in 2024 to a central estimate of 1.2 (95% range 0.00–2.5). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±49.1%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+13%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
1.2Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–2.595% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±49.1%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Cassin's Finch in Utah is projected to rise about 13% by 2029 — from 1.1 in 2024 to a central estimate of 1.2 (95% range 0.00–2.5). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±49.1%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19682029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20251.20.002.6
20261.20.002.6
20271.20.002.5
20281.20.002.5
20291.20.002.5

Cassin's Finch Survey Routes in Utah

Routes recording Cassin's Finch in Utah.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Red Spur Mtn.1520231997
Uintah Nf1519941987
Beck1419871969
Grizzly Rdge1420241986
Castleton1219771977
Woodruff920242002
Bryce Canyon820241990
Canyon Rims620182001
Wasatch Nf620241988
Notom619891989
Richfield520191994
Gooseberry520241994
Book Ridge420062003
Lost Cr. Res420161995
La Sal 2420062003
Soapstone420241992
Skyline Driv420161986
La Sal 3420242007
Bonanza420051996
Saleratus Cr319951995
Navajo Lake320241970
Hanna320151997
Hardware Ranch320111994
Moon Lake 2220232005
Hyrum219771977

Cassin's Finch Population Trend in Other States

arizonacaliforniacoloradoidahomontananevadanew-mexicooregonsouth-dakotawashingtonwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.