BirdAnalyst
Species · Nevada · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Cassin's Finch Population Trend in Nevada

All statesGeneralists

Cassin's Finch in Nevada has collapsed: down 84% on the route-weighted index since 1984.

-84%Since 1984TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
17Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
31YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Cassin's Finch Trends in NevadaNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc declinecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Cassin's Finch has collapsed in Nevada: down 84% on the route-weighted index since 1984.

Cassin's Finch Population Forecast in Nevada

If the recent trend holds, Cassin's Finch in Nevada is projected to rise about 477% by 2028 — from 0.06 in 2023 to a central estimate of 0.32 (95% range 0.00–1.2). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±487.6%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+477%Change by 2028TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.32Projected 2028 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–1.295% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±487.6%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Cassin's Finch in Nevada is projected to rise about 477% by 2028 — from 0.06 in 2023 to a central estimate of 0.32 (95% range 0.00–1.2). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±487.6%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19682028
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20240.350.001.2
20250.340.001.2
20260.340.001.2
20270.330.001.2
20280.320.001.2

Cassin's Finch Survey Routes in Nevada

Routes recording Cassin's Finch in Nevada.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Jarbidge2720151997
Ruby Valley720012001
Austin720172015
Ranchogrande519991992
Ruby Valley 2420132008
Gardnerville420051997
Walker Can220081968
Dinner Sta119901990
Bald Mtn.120161993
Fish Creek120191999
Comins Lake120132005
Humboldt Nf120142005
Sheldon Nwr120092009
Illipah120141993
Humboldt Nf 2120232023
Dobbin Creek119971997
Willis120171988

Cassin's Finch Population Trend in Other States

arizonacaliforniacoloradoidahomontananew-mexicooregonsouth-dakotautahwashingtonwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.