BirdAnalyst
Species · New Mexico · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Cassin's Finch Population Trend in New Mexico

All statesGeneralists

Cassin's Finch in New Mexico has collapsed: down 76% on the route-weighted index since 1984.

-76%Since 1984TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
7Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
21YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Cassin's Finch Trends in New MexicoNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc declinecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Cassin's Finch has collapsed in New Mexico: down 76% on the route-weighted index since 1984.

Cassin's Finch Population Forecast in New Mexico

If the recent trend holds, Cassin's Finch in New Mexico is projected to stay roughly flat through 2029, near 0.01 (95% range 0.00–0.21). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±127.7%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

n/aChange by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.01Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–0.2195% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±127.7%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Cassin's Finch in New Mexico is projected to stay roughly flat through 2029, near 0.01 (95% range 0.00–0.21). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±127.7%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19712029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20250.020.000.22
20260.020.000.22
20270.020.000.21
20280.010.000.21
20290.010.000.21

Cassin's Finch Survey Routes in New Mexico

Routes recording Cassin's Finch in New Mexico.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Cebolla220091977
Angel Fire220021992
Ojo Sarco120241992
La Cienega119711971
Angel Fire 2120242009
Vallecitos119951994
Gallinas120211992

Cassin's Finch Population Trend in Other States

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Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.