BirdAnalyst
Guild · Michigan · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Generalists In Michigan

All statesMichigan

61 species in this guild. As a group they are -52%Guild trendA mean-index aggregate across the species in this group — the structural direction of the guild, with individual-species noise smoothed out.Full methodology → since 1968.

Guild SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

guild collapsecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Generalists as a group have fallen sharply in Michigan, down 52% since 1968.

Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Generalists in Michigan is projected to fall about 30% by 2029 — from 6.6 in 2024 to a central estimate of 4.6 (95% range 2.9–6.3). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±19.4%, with 60% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-30%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
4.6Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
2.9–6.395% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±19.4%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Generalists in Michigan is projected to fall about 30% by 2029 — from 6.6 in 2024 to a central estimate of 4.6 (95% range 2.9–6.3). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±19.4%, with 60% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20255.13.46.8
20265.03.36.7
20274.93.26.6
20284.83.16.5
20294.62.96.3

Member Species In Michigan

Generalists species in Michigan.
TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
Brewer's BlackbirdIcteridae-85%
Pine SiskinFringillidae-85%
Northern HarrierAccipitridae-83%
Northern MockingbirdMimidae-82%
Loggerhead ShrikeLaniidae-82%
Yellow-breasted ChatIcteriidae-79%
Common GrackleIcteridae-76%
House SparrowPasseridae-76%
Black-billed CuckooCuculidae-73%
Evening GrosbeakFringillidae-73%
Eastern Screech-OwlStrigidae-67%
Field SparrowPasserellidae-67%
LeConte's SparrowPasserellidae-64%
Great Horned OwlStrigidae-62%
Brown ThrasherMimidae-62%
American KestrelFalconidae-62%
Brown-headed CowbirdIcteridae-62%
White-winged CrossbillFringillidae-58%
European StarlingSturnidae-56%
Red-winged BlackbirdIcteridae-55%
Song SparrowPasserellidae-51%
Canada JayCorvidae-50%
American GoldfinchFringillidae-50%
Sharp-shinned HawkAccipitridae-50%
American GoshawkAccipitridae-44%
Rock PigeonColumbidae-40%
Purple FinchFringillidae-29%
Belted KingfisherAlcedinidae-10%
Eastern TowheePasserellidae-1%
Clay-colored SparrowPasserellidae+11%
Gray CatbirdMimidae+12%
Indigo BuntingCardinalidae+18%
Barred OwlStrigidae+18%
American CrowCorvidae+19%
Baltimore OrioleIcteridae+20%
Lincoln's SparrowPasserellidae+25%
White-throated SparrowPasserellidae+27%
Mourning DoveColumbidae+32%
Common RavenCorvidae+32%
Blue JayCorvidae+34%
Red CrossbillFringillidae+51%
Yellow-billed CuckooCuculidae+54%
MerlinFalconidae+56%
Broad-winged HawkAccipitridae+62%
Chipping SparrowPasserellidae+65%
Rose-breasted GrosbeakCardinalidae+80%
Scarlet TanagerCardinalidae+81%
Cooper's HawkAccipitridae+82%
Northern CardinalCardinalidae+147%
Cedar WaxwingBombycillidae+152%
Orchard OrioleIcteridae+214%
Red-tailed HawkAccipitridae+233%
Red-shouldered HawkAccipitridae+314%
Ruby-throated HummingbirdTrochilidae+337%
Ruffed GrousePhasianidae+377%
Bald EagleAccipitridae+406%
Swamp SparrowPasserellidae+449%
OspreyPandionidae+811%
Turkey VultureCathartidae13×
Wild TurkeyPhasianidae19×
House FinchFringillidae37×

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.