BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 23 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Red-headed Woodpecker In Prairie Hardwood Transition

All regionsPrairie Hardwood TransitionForest birds

Red-headed Woodpecker in Prairie Hardwood Transition has fallen sharply: down 74% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

-74%Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
150Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
58YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc declinecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Red-headed Woodpecker has fallen sharply in Prairie Hardwood Transition: down 74% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

Red-headed Woodpecker In Prairie Hardwood Transition Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Red-headed Woodpecker in Prairie Hardwood Transition is projected to fall about 100% by 2029 — from 1.1 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.00 (95% range 0.00–1.4). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±145.8%, with 40% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-100%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.00Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–1.495% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±145.8%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Red-headed Woodpecker in Prairie Hardwood Transition is projected to fall about 100% by 2029 — from 1.1 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.00 (95% range 0.00–1.4). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±145.8%, with 40% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20250.000.001.4
20260.000.001.4
20270.000.001.4
20280.000.001.4
20290.000.001.4

Routes In Prairie Hardwood Transition

Routes recording Red-headed Woodpecker in Prairie Hardwood Transition.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Rolling PrWISCONSIN752008
Prairie Du ChienWISCONSIN172024
EsdaileWISCONSIN112015
GuilfordILLINOIS82023
Rolling GrndWISCONSIN82024
KnoxINDIANA72024
NapoleonOHIO62024
N AndoverWISCONSIN62024
BriggsvilleWISCONSIN62024
Hazel GreenWISCONSIN52024
CochraneWISCONSIN42009
ViroquaWISCONSIN42024
WiotaWISCONSIN42024
South BendINDIANA31989
KewannaINDIANA32022
Columbia CtyINDIANA32023
LagrangeINDIANA32024
LawrenceMICHIGAN32023
CoopersvilleMICHIGAN32000
Hamburg 2MICHIGAN32022
Allegan WmaMICHIGAN32012
Money CreekMINNESOTA32009
MinnetonkaMINNESOTA32007
Brook ParkMINNESOTA32024
WeyerhauserWISCONSIN32024

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.