BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 23 · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Red-headed Woodpecker In Prairie Hardwood Transition

All regionsPrairie Hardwood TransitionForest birds

Red-headed Woodpecker in Prairie Hardwood Transition has fallen sharply: down 71% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

-71%Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
151Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
59YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc declinecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Red-headed Woodpecker has fallen sharply in Prairie Hardwood Transition: down 71% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

Red-headed Woodpecker In Prairie Hardwood Transition Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Red-headed Woodpecker in Prairie Hardwood Transition is projected to fall about 100% by 2030 — from 1.3 in 2025 to a central estimate of 0.00 (95% range 0.00–1.5). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±144.4%, with 40% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-100%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.00Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–1.595% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±144.4%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Red-headed Woodpecker in Prairie Hardwood Transition is projected to fall about 100% by 2030 — from 1.3 in 2025 to a central estimate of 0.00 (95% range 0.00–1.5). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±144.4%, with 40% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20260.000.001.5
20270.000.001.5
20280.000.001.5
20290.000.001.5
20300.000.001.5

Routes In Prairie Hardwood Transition

Routes recording Red-headed Woodpecker in Prairie Hardwood Transition.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Rolling PrWISCONSIN752008
EsdaileWISCONSIN112015
Newburg CrnsWISCONSIN102025
Hazel GreenWISCONSIN92025
WiotaWISCONSIN92025
GuilfordILLINOIS82023
Rolling GrndWISCONSIN82025
ScottvilleMICHIGAN72025
HowardsvilleMICHIGAN62025
Prairie Du ChienWISCONSIN62025
BriggsvilleWISCONSIN62025
KnoxINDIANA52025
MiddleburyINDIANA52025
VickeryOHIO52025
Caledonia 2MINNESOTA42025
CochraneWISCONSIN42009
ViroquaWISCONSIN42024
South BendINDIANA31989
KewannaINDIANA32022
Columbia CtyINDIANA32023
Packertown 2INDIANA32025
LagrangeINDIANA32024
CoopersvilleMICHIGAN32000
Allegan WmaMICHIGAN32012
Money CreekMINNESOTA32009

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.