BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 22 · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Red-bellied Woodpecker In Eastern Tallgrass Prairie

All regionsEastern Tallgrass PrairieForest birds

Red-bellied Woodpecker in Eastern Tallgrass Prairie has surged: up 251% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

+251%Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
277Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
59YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Red-bellied Woodpecker has surged in Eastern Tallgrass Prairie: up 250% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

Red-bellied Woodpecker In Eastern Tallgrass Prairie Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Red-bellied Woodpecker in Eastern Tallgrass Prairie is projected to rise about 15% by 2030 — from 7.4 in 2025 to a central estimate of 8.5 (95% range 7.4–9.7). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±5.9%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+15%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
8.5Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
7.4–9.795% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±5.9%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Red-bellied Woodpecker in Eastern Tallgrass Prairie is projected to rise about 15% by 2030 — from 7.4 in 2025 to a central estimate of 8.5 (95% range 7.4–9.7). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±5.9%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20268.16.99.2
20278.27.19.3
20288.37.29.5
20298.47.39.6
20308.57.49.7

Routes In Eastern Tallgrass Prairie

Routes recording Red-bellied Woodpecker in Eastern Tallgrass Prairie.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
BarclayKANSAS292025
SenecaKANSAS292022
KingsvilleMISSOURI292025
GrantvilleKANSAS282022
FilleyMISSOURI282025
FrankfordMISSOURI272025
St MorganILLINOIS262022
Mt VernonILLINOIS262025
GeraldMISSOURI252025
WrefordKANSAS242024
RockinghamMISSOURI242025
GildehouseMISSOURI241989
New PointMISSOURI232025
MoselleMISSOURI232025
AthensvilleILLINOIS222025
GalesburgKANSAS222025
Trading PostKANSAS222025
HumboldtNEBRASKA222025
BelleviewILLINOIS212025
EldredILLINOIS212025
AthensILLINOIS212025
WallaceINDIANA212024
Duncan MillsILLINOIS202025
DoverKANSAS202022
RaymondWISCONSIN202025

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.