BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 22 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Red-bellied Woodpecker In Eastern Tallgrass Prairie

All regionsEastern Tallgrass PrairieForest birds

Red-bellied Woodpecker in Eastern Tallgrass Prairie has surged: up 251% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

+251%Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
276Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
58YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Red-bellied Woodpecker has surged in Eastern Tallgrass Prairie: up 251% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

Red-bellied Woodpecker In Eastern Tallgrass Prairie Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Red-bellied Woodpecker in Eastern Tallgrass Prairie is projected to rise about 17% by 2029 — from 7.3 in 2024 to a central estimate of 8.5 (95% range 7.3–9.6). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±6.6%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+17%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
8.5Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
7.3–9.695% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±6.6%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Red-bellied Woodpecker in Eastern Tallgrass Prairie is projected to rise about 17% by 2029 — from 7.3 in 2024 to a central estimate of 8.5 (95% range 7.3–9.6). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±6.6%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20258.06.99.2
20268.17.09.3
20278.27.19.4
20288.47.29.5
20298.57.39.6

Routes In Eastern Tallgrass Prairie

Routes recording Red-bellied Woodpecker in Eastern Tallgrass Prairie.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
FilleyMISSOURI332024
OhioMISSOURI312024
BelleviewILLINOIS302024
SenecaKANSAS292022
GrantvilleKANSAS282022
St MorganILLINOIS262022
RockinghamMISSOURI262024
FrankfordMISSOURI252024
WrefordKANSAS242024
BucyrusKANSAS242024
OlsburgKANSAS242024
GildehouseMISSOURI241989
GeraldMISSOURI242024
KingsvilleMISSOURI222024
WallaceINDIANA212024
Mascoutah LkILLINOIS202024
DoverKANSAS202022
Trading PostKANSAS202024
River FallsWISCONSIN202024
HumboldtNEBRASKA192024
HarveysburgOHIO191996
MoselleMISSOURI182024
HuntsvilleMISSOURI172024
BloomvilleOHIO172024
Terre HauteILLINOIS162024

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.