BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 22 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Northern Rough-winged Swallow In Eastern Tallgrass Prairie

All regionsEastern Tallgrass PrairieAerial insectivores

Northern Rough-winged Swallow in Eastern Tallgrass Prairie has surged: up 194% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

+194%Since 1968
270Routes In Region
58Years

Notable Signals

long arc increasecomputed index

Northern Rough-winged Swallow has surged in Eastern Tallgrass Prairie: up 194% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Northern Rough-winged Swallow in Eastern Tallgrass Prairie is projected to rise about 37% by 2029 — from 2.0 in 2024 to a central estimate of 2.8 (95% range 1.7–3.8). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±46.8%, with 60% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+37%Change by 2029
2.8Projected 2029 index
1.7–3.895% range
±46.8%Backtest error
19662029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected index95% low95% high
20252.71.63.7
20262.71.73.7
20272.71.73.7
20282.71.73.8
20292.81.73.8

Routes In Eastern Tallgrass Prairie

Routes recording Northern Rough-winged Swallow in Eastern Tallgrass Prairie.
EldredILLINOIS2402021
PeoriaOKLAHOMA512023
BryantIOWA422013
MelroseILLINOIS351999
WayneILLINOIS312024
StillwellILLINOIS302024
Gretna 2NEBRASKA302022
GulfportILLINOIS252024
Rock Creek 2KANSAS252023
SherrardILLINOIS222024
West LibertyIOWA222023
WarrenMISSOURI221984
PawneeILLINOIS202018
Kahoka2MISSOURI202024
RensselaerMISSOURI192019
StetMISSOURI191991
Camp PointILLINOIS182024
KingsvilleMISSOURI162024
CollinsvilleOKLAHOMA162019
Davis CornerIOWA122003
IrvingtonNEBRASKA122018
River FallsWISCONSIN122022
HolcombILLINOIS112022
SheffieldILLINOIS112024
Le RoyILLINOIS112023

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.