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Species · Florida · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Mottled Duck Population Trend in Florida

All statesWaterfowl

Mottled Duck in Florida has collapsed: down 77% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

-77%Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
60Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
58YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Mottled Duck Trends in FloridaNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc declinecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Mottled Duck has collapsed in Florida: down 77% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

Mottled Duck Population Forecast in Florida

If the recent trend holds, Mottled Duck in Florida is projected to rise about 216% by 2029 — from 0.25 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.78 (95% range 0.00–2.0). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±177.9%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+216%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.78Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–2.095% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±177.9%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Mottled Duck in Florida is projected to rise about 216% by 2029 — from 0.25 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.78 (95% range 0.00–2.0). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±177.9%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20250.790.002.0
20260.780.002.0
20270.780.002.0
20280.780.002.0
20290.780.002.0

Mottled Duck Survey Routes in Florida

Routes recording Mottled Duck in Florida.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Salvista819781967
Shawano820021987
Merritt Isl720071991
Broward719731966
Davie720022002
Shawano 2620112004
Citrus Park620221990
Winter Gardn420191990
Devils Gardn420231987
Holey Land320241987
Mabel320071995
Pinecrest319991972
Ridge Harbor320241991
Mt. Olive320242024
Andytown319891974
Redlands320162016
Nobleton320081997
Sandy320141987
St Lucie320241988
Alva320231987
Lake Buffum220071991
Indiantown 2220232023
Punta Gorda220151981
Lovedale219971997
Croom220111996

Mottled Duck Population Trend in Other States

alabamaarkansaskansaslouisianamississippisouth-carolinatexas

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.