BirdAnalyst
Species · Louisiana · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Mottled Duck Population Trend in Louisiana

All statesWaterfowl

Mottled Duck in Louisiana has declined: down 37% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

-37%Since 1969TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
34Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
53YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Mottled Duck Trends in LouisianaNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Mottled Duck in Louisiana. See the full index history below.

Mottled Duck Population Forecast in Louisiana

If the recent trend holds, Mottled Duck in Louisiana is projected to stay roughly flat through 2029, near 0.44 (95% range 0.00–3.5). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±661.6%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+0%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.44Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–3.595% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±661.6%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Mottled Duck in Louisiana is projected to stay roughly flat through 2029, near 0.44 (95% range 0.00–3.5). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±661.6%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19672029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20250.570.003.7
20260.540.003.6
20270.510.003.6
20280.470.003.6
20290.440.003.5

Mottled Duck Survey Routes in Louisiana

Routes recording Mottled Duck in Louisiana.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Junior3219911987
Gran Chenier2019761967
Ville Platte1120191992
Ltl Chenier 21020112010
Maurice720241988
Grand Isle720182010
Forked Island 2620112010
Lafitte519911967
Creole519871967
Esther520241988
Ramah520112011
Sabine Nwr 2520172009
Vinton 2420232021
Richard420231998
Glencoe320151997
Forked Island320242008
Kraemer320102010
Ltl Chenier320241986
Sabine Nwr320011989
Carlisle219681968
Keystone220082006
Easton219691969
Hackberry220161968
Shaw219801980
Concord220072007

Mottled Duck Population Trend in Other States

alabamaarkansasfloridakansasmississippisouth-carolinatexas

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.