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Species · Texas · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Mottled Duck Population Trend in Texas

All statesWaterfowl

Mottled Duck in Texas has collapsed: down 91% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

-91%Since 1969TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
45Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
58YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Mottled Duck Trends in TexasNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc declinecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Mottled Duck has collapsed in Texas: down 91% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

Mottled Duck Population Forecast in Texas

If the recent trend holds, Mottled Duck in Texas is projected to fall about 92% by 2030 — from 0.14 in 2025 to a central estimate of 0.01 (95% range 0.00–0.64). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±36.6%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-92%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.01Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–0.6495% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±36.6%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Mottled Duck in Texas is projected to fall about 92% by 2030 — from 0.14 in 2025 to a central estimate of 0.01 (95% range 0.00–0.64). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±36.6%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19672030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20260.100.000.73
20270.080.000.71
20280.050.000.69
20290.030.000.66
20300.010.000.64

Mottled Duck Survey Routes in Texas

Routes recording Mottled Duck in Texas.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Bayside 25120041997
Loyola Beach1020091994
Peach Creek919711971
L. Atascosa Nwr520231998
Stowell420251968
Rock Island420251967
Raymondville420251973
Agua Nueva320092009
Millett 2320162016
Progreso320111995
Port Acres320241994
Petronila220231972
Mirando City220122012
Goliad Prairie220162006
Indianola220131967
Hobson220221994
George West220222017
Loyola Beach 2220242010
Winnie220251967
Danbury220191967
Katy220251968
Bayside220101994
Mount Zion220211994
Brite220252025
El Sauz220141997

Mottled Duck Population Trend in Other States

alabamaarkansasfloridakansaslouisianamississippisouth-carolina

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.