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Species · Texas · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Mottled Duck Population Trend in Texas

All statesWaterfowl

Mottled Duck in Texas has collapsed: down 88% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

-88%Since 1969
44Routes In State
57Years

Notable Mottled Duck Trends in Texas

long arc declinecomputed index

Mottled Duck has collapsed in Texas: down 88% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

Mottled Duck Population Forecast in Texas

If the recent trend holds, Mottled Duck in Texas is projected to fall about 60% by 2029 — from 0.08 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.03 (95% range 0.00–0.67). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±40.4%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-60%Change by 2029
0.03Projected 2029 index
0.00–0.6795% range
±40.4%Backtest error
19672029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected index95% low95% high
20250.120.000.75
20260.100.000.73
20270.070.000.71
20280.050.000.69
20290.030.000.67

Mottled Duck Survey Routes in Texas

Routes recording Mottled Duck in Texas.
Bayside 25120041997
Stowell2220181968
Loyola Beach1020091994
Peach Creek919711971
Lag Atascosa620231969
Hondo620211985
Raymondville620231973
L. Atascosa Nwr520231998
Agua Nueva320092009
Millett 2320162016
Progreso320111995
Port Acres320241994
Petronila220231972
Mirando City220122012
Goliad Prairie220162006
Indianola220131967
Hobson220221994
George West220222017
Loyola Beach 2220242010
Winnie220241967
Danbury220191967
Katy220241968
Rock Island220231967
Chinquapin220241995
Bayside220101994

Mottled Duck Population Trend in Other States

alabamaarkansasfloridakansaslouisianamississippisouth-carolina

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.