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Species · Texas · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Mottled Duck Population Trend in Texas

All statesWaterfowl

Mottled Duck in Texas has collapsed: down 88% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

-88%Since 1969TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
44Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
57YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Mottled Duck Trends in TexasNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc declinecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Mottled Duck has collapsed in Texas: down 88% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

Mottled Duck Population Forecast in Texas

If the recent trend holds, Mottled Duck in Texas is projected to fall about 60% by 2029 — from 0.08 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.03 (95% range 0.00–0.67). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±40.4%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-60%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.03Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–0.6795% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±40.4%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Mottled Duck in Texas is projected to fall about 60% by 2029 — from 0.08 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.03 (95% range 0.00–0.67). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±40.4%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19672029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20250.120.000.75
20260.100.000.73
20270.070.000.71
20280.050.000.69
20290.030.000.67

Mottled Duck Survey Routes in Texas

Routes recording Mottled Duck in Texas.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Bayside 25120041997
Stowell2220181968
Loyola Beach1020091994
Peach Creek919711971
Lag Atascosa620231969
Hondo620211985
Raymondville620231973
L. Atascosa Nwr520231998
Agua Nueva320092009
Millett 2320162016
Progreso320111995
Port Acres320241994
Petronila220231972
Mirando City220122012
Goliad Prairie220162006
Indianola220131967
Hobson220221994
George West220222017
Loyola Beach 2220242010
Winnie220241967
Danbury220191967
Katy220241968
Rock Island220231967
Chinquapin220241995
Bayside220101994

Mottled Duck Population Trend in Other States

alabamaarkansasfloridakansaslouisianamississippisouth-carolina

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.