BirdAnalyst
Species · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Lesser Prairie-Chicken

PhasianidaeGame birdsTympanuchus pallidicinctus

Lesser Prairie-Chicken has surged: up 365% on the route-weighted index since 1972.

+365%Since 1972TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
23RoutesSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
43Years SurveyedYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

About the Lesser Prairie-Chicken

The Lesser Prairie-Chicken (Tympanuchus pallidicinctus) is a North American member of the Pheasants, Grouse & Turkeys (Phasianidae). In this analysis it is grouped with the game birds.

Size
12–47 in long (30–120 cm) — a ground-dwelling game bird (typical for the family)
Habitat
Fields, brushland, prairie and the forest floor, where it forages and nests on the ground.
Diet
Seeds, grain, buds, leaves and insects gathered on the ground.
Range
Recorded on 23 Breeding Bird Survey routes across 5 states, most concentrated in the Shortgrass Prairie.
Family
Phasianidae · Game birds

Notable Lesser Prairie-Chicken TrendsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Lesser Prairie-Chicken. See the full index history below.

Lesser Prairie-Chicken Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Lesser Prairie-Chicken is projected to stay roughly flat through 2028, near 0.01 (95% range 0.00–0.01). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±650.6%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

n/aChange by 2028TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.01Projected 2028 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–0.0195% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±650.6%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Lesser Prairie-Chicken is projected to stay roughly flat through 2028, near 0.01 (95% range 0.00–0.01). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±650.6%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19692028
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20240.010.000.01
20250.010.000.01
20260.010.000.01
20270.010.000.01
20280.010.000.01

Where the Lesser Prairie-Chicken Is Detected

BBS routes recording Lesser Prairie-Chicken, sized by most recent count.

Lesser Prairie-Chicken Population Trend by State

Lesser Prairie-Chicken population trend by state.
TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →Baseline yearThe first year of the smoothed window the trend is measured from. An earlier baseline means a longer record stands behind the number.Full methodology →Survey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
Coloradoinsufficient datan/a2
Kansas+203%198010
New Mexicoinsufficient datan/a3
Oklahomainsufficient datan/a5
Texas-63%19793

Lesser Prairie-Chicken Population Trend by Region

Bird Conservation Regions are the ecological unit for trends.

Lesser Prairie-Chicken population trend by Bird Conservation Region.
TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →Baseline yearThe first year of the smoothed window the trend is measured from. An earlier baseline means a longer record stands behind the number.Full methodology →Survey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
Shortgrass Prairie+127%197213
Central Mixed Grass Prairie-82%198010

Lesser Prairie-Chicken Conservation Status

Our route-weighted index shows it up about 365% since 1972.

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22. Trend is a route-weighted relative-abundance index, not an absolute population.