BirdAnalyst
Species · Texas · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Lesser Prairie-Chicken Population Trend in Texas

All statesGeneralists

Lesser Prairie-Chicken in Texas has fallen sharply: down 63% on the route-weighted index since 1979.

-63%Since 1979TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
3Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
21YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Lesser Prairie-Chicken Trends in TexasNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Lesser Prairie-Chicken in Texas. See the full index history below.

Lesser Prairie-Chicken Population Forecast in Texas

If the recent trend holds, Lesser Prairie-Chicken in Texas is projected to stay roughly flat through 2018, near 0.03 (95% range 0.00–0.18). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±499.9%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

n/aChange by 2018TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.03Projected 2018 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–0.1895% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±499.9%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Lesser Prairie-Chicken in Texas is projected to stay roughly flat through 2018, near 0.03 (95% range 0.00–0.18). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±499.9%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19692018
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20140.040.000.18
20150.040.000.18
20160.030.000.18
20170.030.000.18
20180.030.000.18

Lesser Prairie-Chicken Survey Routes in Texas

Routes recording Lesser Prairie-Chicken in Texas.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Plains420111996
Booker320021984
Plains120131969

Lesser Prairie-Chicken Population Trend in Other States

coloradokansasnew-mexicooklahoma

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.