BirdAnalyst
Species · Kansas · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Lesser Prairie-Chicken Population Trend in Kansas

All statesGeneralists

Lesser Prairie-Chicken in Kansas has surged: up 203% on the route-weighted index since 1980.

+203%Since 1980TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
10Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
30YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Lesser Prairie-Chicken Trends in KansasNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Lesser Prairie-Chicken has surged in Kansas: up 203% on the route-weighted index since 1980.

Lesser Prairie-Chicken Population Forecast in Kansas

If the recent trend holds, Lesser Prairie-Chicken in Kansas is projected to stay roughly flat through 2026, near 0.23 (95% range 0.00–0.59). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±382.4%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

n/aChange by 2026TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.23Projected 2026 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–0.5995% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±382.4%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Lesser Prairie-Chicken in Kansas is projected to stay roughly flat through 2026, near 0.23 (95% range 0.00–0.59). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±382.4%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19772026
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20220.210.000.58
20230.220.000.58
20240.220.000.59
20250.220.000.59
20260.230.000.59

Lesser Prairie-Chicken Survey Routes in Kansas

Routes recording Lesser Prairie-Chicken in Kansas.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Winona4820182003
Gove420112011
Missler220152007
Coldwater220021977
Gray220092005
Ashland120211986
Plymell120092000
Ulysses120082000
Ash Valley120182018
Grigston120182006

Lesser Prairie-Chicken Population Trend in Other States

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Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.