BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 19 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Lesser Prairie-Chicken In Central Mixed Grass Prairie

All regionsCentral Mixed Grass PrairieGeneralists

Lesser Prairie-Chicken in Central Mixed Grass Prairie has collapsed: down 82% on the route-weighted index since 1980.

-82%Since 1980TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
10Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
27YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc declinecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Lesser Prairie-Chicken has collapsed in Central Mixed Grass Prairie: down 82% on the route-weighted index since 1980.

Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Lesser Prairie-Chicken in Central Mixed Grass Prairie is projected to stay roughly flat through 2026, near 0.03 (95% range 0.00–0.14). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±331%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

n/aChange by 2026TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.03Projected 2026 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–0.1495% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±331%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Lesser Prairie-Chicken in Central Mixed Grass Prairie is projected to stay roughly flat through 2026, near 0.03 (95% range 0.00–0.14). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±331%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19772026
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20220.030.000.15
20230.030.000.14
20240.030.000.14
20250.030.000.14
20260.030.000.14

Routes In Central Mixed Grass Prairie

Routes recording Lesser Prairie-Chicken in Central Mixed Grass Prairie.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
GoveKANSAS42011
BookerTEXAS32002
ColdwaterKANSAS22002
GrayKANSAS22009
MisslerKANSAS22015
GrimesOKLAHOMA21977
AshlandKANSAS12021
Ash ValleyKANSAS12018
TegardenOKLAHOMA11999
BeaverOKLAHOMA12006

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.