BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 18 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Lesser Prairie-Chicken In Shortgrass Prairie

All regionsShortgrass PrairieGeneralists

Lesser Prairie-Chicken in Shortgrass Prairie has surged: up 127% on the route-weighted index since 1972.

+127%Since 1972
13Routes In Region
32Years

Notable Signals

long arc increasecomputed index

Lesser Prairie-Chicken has surged in Shortgrass Prairie: up 127% on the route-weighted index since 1972.

Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Lesser Prairie-Chicken in Shortgrass Prairie is projected to stay roughly flat through 2028, near 0.13 (95% range 0.00–0.49). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±105.5%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

n/aChange by 2028
0.13Projected 2028 index
0.00–0.4995% range
±105.5%Backtest error
19692028
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected index95% low95% high
20240.130.000.50
20250.130.000.50
20260.130.000.50
20270.130.000.50
20280.130.000.49

Routes In Shortgrass Prairie

Routes recording Lesser Prairie-Chicken in Shortgrass Prairie.
WinonaKANSAS482018
PlainsTEXAS42011
LamarCOLORADO32018
CaprockNEW-MEXICO31990
Clear LakeOKLAHOMA32023
HardestyOKLAHOMA21972
NeegrandeCOLORADO12007
PlymellKANSAS12009
UlyssesKANSAS12008
GrigstonKANSAS12018
FloydNEW-MEXICO11991
PepNEW-MEXICO12018
PlainsTEXAS12013

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.