BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 18 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Lesser Prairie-Chicken In Shortgrass Prairie

All regionsShortgrass PrairieGeneralists

Lesser Prairie-Chicken in Shortgrass Prairie has surged: up 127% on the route-weighted index since 1972.

+127%Since 1972TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
13Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
32YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Lesser Prairie-Chicken has surged in Shortgrass Prairie: up 127% on the route-weighted index since 1972.

Lesser Prairie-Chicken In Shortgrass Prairie Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Lesser Prairie-Chicken in Shortgrass Prairie is projected to stay roughly flat through 2028, near 0.13 (95% range 0.00–0.49). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±105.5%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

n/aChange by 2028TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.13Projected 2028 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–0.4995% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±105.5%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Lesser Prairie-Chicken in Shortgrass Prairie is projected to stay roughly flat through 2028, near 0.13 (95% range 0.00–0.49). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±105.5%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19692028
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20240.130.000.50
20250.130.000.50
20260.130.000.50
20270.130.000.50
20280.130.000.49

Routes In Shortgrass Prairie

Routes recording Lesser Prairie-Chicken in Shortgrass Prairie.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
WinonaKANSAS482018
PlainsTEXAS42011
LamarCOLORADO32018
CaprockNEW-MEXICO31990
Clear LakeOKLAHOMA32023
HardestyOKLAHOMA21972
NeegrandeCOLORADO12007
PlymellKANSAS12009
UlyssesKANSAS12008
GrigstonKANSAS12018
FloydNEW-MEXICO11991
PepNEW-MEXICO12018
PlainsTEXAS12013

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.