BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 28 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Green Heron In Appalachian Mountains

All regionsAppalachian MountainsWetland birds

Green Heron in Appalachian Mountains has fallen sharply: down 65% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

-65%Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
335Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
58YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc declinecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Green Heron has fallen sharply in Appalachian Mountains: down 65% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

Green Heron In Appalachian Mountains Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Green Heron in Appalachian Mountains is projected to fall about 44% by 2029 — from 0.25 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.14 (95% range 0.01–0.27). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±23.4%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-44%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.14Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.01–0.2795% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±23.4%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Green Heron in Appalachian Mountains is projected to fall about 44% by 2029 — from 0.25 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.14 (95% range 0.01–0.27). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±23.4%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20250.170.040.30
20260.160.030.29
20270.150.020.29
20280.140.010.28
20290.140.010.27

Routes In Appalachian Mountains

Routes recording Green Heron in Appalachian Mountains.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Pine GroveALABAMA42024
WoodvilleALABAMA42018
EldredPENNSYLVANIA42015
Drehersville 2PENNSYLVANIA42024
GreensportALABAMA32024
LinwoodGEORGIA32019
GeslingKENTUCKY31973
CamptonKENTUCKY31982
Kemah LakeNEW-JERSEY32024
Hop BottomPENNSYLVANIA32015
HonesdalePENNSYLVANIA32024
ParkwoodPENNSYLVANIA32019
BrunnervillePENNSYLVANIA32007
Schaefferstown 2PENNSYLVANIA32018
Corryton RdTENNESSEE32019
FayettevilleWEST-VIRGINIA31995
Yellow SpgWEST-VIRGINIA32022
DearmanvilleALABAMA21983
Smyer LakeALABAMA22021
Mt OliveALABAMA22024
GuntersvilleALABAMA22016
ChildersburgALABAMA21998
YoungtownALABAMA22016
LakeviewALABAMA22016
StevensonALABAMA22024

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.