BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 28 · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

European Starling In Appalachian Mountains

All regionsAppalachian MountainsGeneralists

European Starling in Appalachian Mountains has fallen sharply: down 60% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

-60%Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
384Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
59YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc declinecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

European Starling has fallen sharply in Appalachian Mountains: down 60% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

European Starling In Appalachian Mountains Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, European Starling in Appalachian Mountains is projected to fall about 34% by 2030 — from 41 in 2025 to a central estimate of 27 (95% range 7.5–46). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±23.8%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-34%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
27Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
7.5–4695% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±23.8%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, European Starling in Appalachian Mountains is projected to fall about 34% by 2030 — from 41 in 2025 to a central estimate of 27 (95% range 7.5–46). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±23.8%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
2026301150
2027301049
2028299.348
2029288.447
2030277.546

Routes In Appalachian Mountains

Routes recording European Starling in Appalachian Mountains.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
NewbernVIRGINIA3861982
ChurchvilleVIRGINIA3732025
Allens BrdgeTENNESSEE3582023
ScheafferstnPENNSYLVANIA3492001
MckeeKENTUCKY3062025
QuakertownPENNSYLVANIA3031989
Schaefferstown 2PENNSYLVANIA2582025
ArnotPENNSYLVANIA2272025
WilliamsportMARYLAND2252025
BirminghamALABAMA2181995
BirminghamOHIO2112024
BrooksvilleALABAMA2092025
Brunnerville 2PENNSYLVANIA1892025
SardisPENNSYLVANIA1851974
ClimerTENNESSEE1852004
Pt PleasantWEST-VIRGINIA1722025
MiddletownPENNSYLVANIA1682025
Greasy RidgeOHIO1661991
BerwickPENNSYLVANIA1632025
MartinsburgPENNSYLVANIA1622025
DrehersvillePENNSYLVANIA1601999
DurhamNEW-YORK1531976
EldredPENNSYLVANIA1512022
ArleeWEST-VIRGINIA1491979
EdinburgVIRGINIA1442025

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.