BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 28 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

European Starling In Appalachian Mountains

All regionsAppalachian MountainsGeneralists

European Starling in Appalachian Mountains has fallen sharply: down 61% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

-61%Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
383Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
58YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc declinecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

European Starling has fallen sharply in Appalachian Mountains: down 61% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

Forecast

If the recent trend holds, European Starling in Appalachian Mountains is projected to fall about 28% by 2029 — from 38 in 2024 to a central estimate of 27 (95% range 7.6–47). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±20.6%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-28%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
27Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
7.6–4795% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±20.6%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, European Starling in Appalachian Mountains is projected to fall about 28% by 2029 — from 38 in 2024 to a central estimate of 27 (95% range 7.6–47). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±20.6%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
2025311150
2026301049
2027299.448
2028288.547
2029277.647

Routes In Appalachian Mountains

Routes recording European Starling in Appalachian Mountains.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
NewbernVIRGINIA3861982
Allens BrdgeTENNESSEE3582023
ScheafferstnPENNSYLVANIA3492001
WilliamsportMARYLAND3322024
QuakertownPENNSYLVANIA3031989
Drehersville 2PENNSYLVANIA2532024
MiddletownPENNSYLVANIA2512024
ChurchvilleVIRGINIA2252024
BirminghamALABAMA2181995
Brunnerville 2PENNSYLVANIA2122024
BirminghamOHIO2112024
StonecreekOHIO1932024
SardisPENNSYLVANIA1851974
ClimerTENNESSEE1852004
VirginiaPENNSYLVANIA1802024
Greasy RidgeOHIO1661991
DrehersvillePENNSYLVANIA1601999
DurhamNEW-YORK1531976
EldredPENNSYLVANIA1512022
SigelPENNSYLVANIA1492024
ArleeWEST-VIRGINIA1491979
Plesant GrovPENNSYLVANIA1432024
GreerWEST-VIRGINIA1302023
NormalvillePENNSYLVANIA1251974
ElizabethvilPENNSYLVANIA1232024

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.