BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 24 · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Brown Thrasher In Central Hardwoods

All regionsCentral HardwoodsForest birds

Brown Thrasher in Central Hardwoods has declined: down 48% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

-48%Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
163Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
59YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Brown Thrasher in Central Hardwoods. See the full index history below.

Brown Thrasher In Central Hardwoods Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Brown Thrasher in Central Hardwoods is projected to fall about 16% by 2030 — from 3.8 in 2025 to a central estimate of 3.2 (95% range 1.7–4.7). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±7.6%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-16%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
3.2Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
1.7–4.795% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±7.6%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Brown Thrasher in Central Hardwoods is projected to fall about 16% by 2030 — from 3.8 in 2025 to a central estimate of 3.2 (95% range 1.7–4.7). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±7.6%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20263.52.04.9
20273.41.94.9
20283.31.94.8
20293.31.84.7
20303.21.74.7

Routes In Central Hardwoods

Routes recording Brown Thrasher in Central Hardwoods.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
BoxvilleKENTUCKY171983
Valhermoso SpgsALABAMA122010
CollinwoodTENNESSEE122025
AkersMISSOURI112025
RomeOHIO112025
Valhermoso Spg 2ALABAMA102014
WhitewaterMISSOURI102025
Union HillTENNESSEE102024
DelwoodILLINOIS92025
East UnionKENTUCKY92025
Lebanon JunctionKENTUCKY92025
PeytonsvilleTENNESSEE92025
WashingtonINDIANA82025
Indian SpgsINDIANA82025
DrakesboroKENTUCKY82003
RiverqueenKENTUCKY82025
CascadeMISSOURI82025
Doe RunMISSOURI82024
SwaimALABAMA72025
TrianaALABAMA72012
Sulphur LickKENTUCKY72024
MerrimacKENTUCKY72024
PlumKENTUCKY72025
PleasurevillKENTUCKY72025
BarksMISSOURI72025

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.