BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 24 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Brown Thrasher In Central Hardwoods

All regionsCentral HardwoodsGeneralists

Brown Thrasher in Central Hardwoods has declined: down 49% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

-49%Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
163Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
58YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Brown Thrasher in Central Hardwoods. See the full index history below.

Brown Thrasher In Central Hardwoods Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Brown Thrasher in Central Hardwoods is projected to stay roughly flat through 2029, near 3.2 (95% range 1.8–4.7). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±7.2%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-0%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
3.2Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
1.8–4.795% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±7.2%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Brown Thrasher in Central Hardwoods is projected to stay roughly flat through 2029, near 3.2 (95% range 1.8–4.7). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±7.2%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20253.52.05.0
20263.42.04.9
20273.41.94.8
20283.31.84.8
20293.21.84.7

Routes In Central Hardwoods

Routes recording Brown Thrasher in Central Hardwoods.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
BoxvilleKENTUCKY171983
CollinwoodTENNESSEE132024
Valhermoso SpgsALABAMA122010
GeorgiaINDIANA112024
Valhermoso Spg 2ALABAMA102014
BremenILLINOIS102024
Union HillTENNESSEE102024
GlenTENNESSEE102024
CentertonARKANSAS92024
PimentoINDIANA82024
DrakesboroKENTUCKY82003
Doe RunMISSOURI82024
ElkmontALABAMA72024
TrianaALABAMA72012
YellvilleARKANSAS72010
Sulphur LickKENTUCKY72024
MerrimacKENTUCKY72024
PlumKENTUCKY72024
MorganfieldKENTUCKY72024
PleasurevillKENTUCKY72024
MarshfieldMISSOURI72023
RomeOHIO72024
FultonARKANSAS62024
BirdsILLINOIS62022
BelknapILLINOIS62024

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.