BirdAnalyst
Species · Nevada · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Brewer's Blackbird Population Trend in Nevada

All statesGeneralists

Brewer's Blackbird in Nevada has held roughly steady: down 3% on the route-weighted index since 1970.

-3%Since 1970TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
45Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
57YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Brewer's Blackbird Trends in NevadaNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Brewer's Blackbird in Nevada. See the full index history below.

Brewer's Blackbird Population Forecast in Nevada

If the recent trend holds, Brewer's Blackbird in Nevada is projected to rise about 118% by 2030 — from 8.7 in 2025 to a central estimate of 19 (95% range 0.55–37). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±145.5%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+118%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
19Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.55–3795% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±145.5%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Brewer's Blackbird in Nevada is projected to rise about 118% by 2030 — from 8.7 in 2025 to a central estimate of 19 (95% range 0.55–37). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±145.5%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19682030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
2026190.2137
2027190.2937
2028190.3837
2029190.4637
2030190.5537

Brewer's Blackbird Survey Routes in Nevada

Routes recording Brewer's Blackbird in Nevada.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Toiyabe Nf26320241987
Ruby Valley 212420242004
Gardnerville7320121992
Ruby Valley7020011997
Charleston Reservoir6420242024
Rye Patch5419871968
Dinner Sta5319931968
Virgin Creek5320181995
Ranchogrande5020241988
Gardnerville 24420252013
Vya4119741968
Majors Place4020251968
Carson River2420052001
Willis2120251988
Midas1820251974
Walker Can1820241968
Calico Spr1519741968
Humboldt Nf 21520252021
Humboldt Nf1220191993
Cortez1020251972
Bald Mtn.1020251992
Sand Pass920251989
Fish Creek920211997
Frenchman919751973
Mill City920232013

Brewer's Blackbird Population Trend in Other States

arizonacaliforniacoloradoidahoindianamichiganminnesotamontananebraskanew-mexiconorth-dakotaoklahomaoregonsouth-dakotatexasutahwashingtonwisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.