BirdAnalyst
Species · Nevada · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Brewer's Blackbird Population Trend in Nevada

All statesGeneralists

Brewer's Blackbird in Nevada has edged down: down 12% on the route-weighted index since 1970.

-12%Since 1970TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
45Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
56YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Brewer's Blackbird Trends in NevadaNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Brewer's Blackbird in Nevada. See the full index history below.

Brewer's Blackbird Population Forecast in Nevada

If the recent trend holds, Brewer's Blackbird in Nevada is projected to fall about 25% by 2029 — from 26 in 2024 to a central estimate of 20 (95% range 1.3–38). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±144.3%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-25%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
20Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
1.3–3895% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±144.3%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Brewer's Blackbird in Nevada is projected to fall about 25% by 2029 — from 26 in 2024 to a central estimate of 20 (95% range 1.3–38). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±144.3%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19682029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
2025190.9037
2026191.038
2027191.138
2028191.238
2029201.338

Brewer's Blackbird Survey Routes in Nevada

Routes recording Brewer's Blackbird in Nevada.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Toiyabe Nf26320241987
Ruby Valley 212420242004
Gardnerville7320121992
Ruby Valley7020011997
Charleston Reservoir6420242024
Rye Patch5419871968
Dinner Sta5319931968
Virgin Creek5320181995
Ranchogrande5020241988
Majors Place4220241968
Vya4119741968
Humboldt Nf 23720242021
Piute Mdws3020242005
Midas2520241974
Carson River2420052001
Walker Can1820241968
Willis1720241988
Calico Spr1519741968
Bald Mtn.1520241992
Humboldt Nf1220191993
Gardnerville 21220242013
Nixon1020231973
Fish Creek920211997
Frenchman919751973
Mill City920232013

Brewer's Blackbird Population Trend in Other States

arizonacaliforniacoloradoidahoindianamichiganminnesotamontananebraskanew-mexiconorth-dakotaoklahomaoregonsouth-dakotatexasutahwashingtonwisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.