BirdAnalyst
Species · Nebraska · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Brewer's Blackbird Population Trend in Nebraska

All statesGeneralists

Brewer's Blackbird in Nebraska has surged: up 122% on the route-weighted index since 1981.

+122%Since 1981TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
10Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
39YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Brewer's Blackbird Trends in NebraskaNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Brewer's Blackbird has surged in Nebraska: up 122% on the route-weighted index since 1981.

Brewer's Blackbird Population Forecast in Nebraska

If the recent trend holds, Brewer's Blackbird in Nebraska is projected to rise about 117% by 2029 — from 0.17 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.36 (95% range 0.00–1.2). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±118.2%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+117%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.36Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–1.295% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±118.2%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Brewer's Blackbird in Nebraska is projected to rise about 117% by 2029 — from 0.17 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.36 (95% range 0.00–1.2). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±118.2%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19792029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20250.380.001.2
20260.370.001.2
20270.370.001.2
20280.370.001.2
20290.360.001.2

Brewer's Blackbird Survey Routes in Nebraska

Routes recording Brewer's Blackbird in Nebraska.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Berea1820171980
Crawford920191981
Pine Ridge820022000
Crescent Lk720121994
Murray Lake620242010
Agate 2220242022
Benkelman220092003
Oglala Nat. Grass.220231999
Paxton219791979
Agate220011990

Brewer's Blackbird Population Trend in Other States

arizonacaliforniacoloradoidahoindianamichiganminnesotamontananevadanew-mexiconorth-dakotaoklahomaoregonsouth-dakotatexasutahwashingtonwisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.