BirdAnalyst
Species · New Mexico · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Brewer's Blackbird Population Trend in New Mexico

All statesGeneralists

Brewer's Blackbird in New Mexico has declined: down 26% on the route-weighted index since 1970.

-26%Since 1970TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
33Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
56YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Brewer's Blackbird Trends in New MexicoNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Brewer's Blackbird in New Mexico. See the full index history below.

Brewer's Blackbird Population Forecast in New Mexico

If the recent trend holds, Brewer's Blackbird in New Mexico is projected to rise about 41% by 2029 — from 0.74 in 2024 to a central estimate of 1.0 (95% range 0.00–3.7). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±27.8%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+41%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
1.0Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–3.795% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±27.8%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Brewer's Blackbird in New Mexico is projected to rise about 41% by 2029 — from 0.74 in 2024 to a central estimate of 1.0 (95% range 0.00–3.7). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±27.8%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19682029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20251.20.003.9
20261.20.003.8
20271.10.003.8
20281.10.003.7
20291.00.003.7

Brewer's Blackbird Survey Routes in New Mexico

Routes recording Brewer's Blackbird in New Mexico.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Angel Fire4720021992
Jornada3619771977
Stinking Lk.2319991992
La Plata 22120162014
Angel Fire 21620242005
Dulce1020242000
Farmington919871975
Capulin819941994
Aztec819891988
Nageesi620041972
Wagon Mound619711971
Cooley Lake619761976
Rodeo619861986
Gallinas520211992
Ojo Sarco420241968
Cloudcroft420211979
Pecos320171979
Torreon220242019
La Cienega220001977
Shiprock220222022
Rosebud220122012
Bluewater Lake220211999
Cerro Verde219961996
Cebolla120231973
Grenville119801980

Brewer's Blackbird Population Trend in Other States

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Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.