BirdAnalyst
Species · Texas · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

American Barn Owl Population Trend in Texas

All statesGeneralists

American Barn Owl in Texas has increased: up 46% on the route-weighted index since 1973.

+46%Since 1973TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
44Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
34YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable American Barn Owl Trends in TexasNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for American Barn Owl in Texas. See the full index history below.

American Barn Owl Population Forecast in Texas

If the recent trend holds, American Barn Owl in Texas is projected to stay roughly flat through 2026, near 0.04 (95% range 0.00–0.07). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±107.4%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

n/aChange by 2026TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.04Projected 2026 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–0.0795% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±107.4%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, American Barn Owl in Texas is projected to stay roughly flat through 2026, near 0.04 (95% range 0.00–0.07). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±107.4%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19672026
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20220.040.000.07
20230.040.000.07
20240.040.000.07
20250.040.000.07
20260.040.000.07

American Barn Owl Survey Routes in Texas

Routes recording American Barn Owl in Texas.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Coyanda Draw320182013
Panhandle320112006
Campbellton220081993
Winnie220172017
Weinert219931988
Circle220191998
Midland220072006
Girvin220062006
Williams220041998
Twichell220042003
Lag Atascosa120081993
Kingsville120112004
L. Atascosa Nwr120032003
Goliad Prairie120092009
Encinal119811981
San Ygnacio119671967
Vanderbilt119741974
Danbury119991986
Katy119841984
Bayside 2119981997
Lone Oak120002000
Progreso120052005
Oyster Lake120002000
Kempner119801980
Brite120032003

American Barn Owl Population Trend in Other States

alabamaarizonaarkansascaliforniacoloradodelawarefloridageorgiaidahokansaskentuckylouisianamarylandmississippimissourinebraskanevadanew-mexiconorth-carolinaoklahomaoregonsouth-dakotatennesseeutahwashingtonwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.