BirdAnalyst
Species · Florida · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

American Barn Owl Population Trend in Florida

All statesGeneralists

American Barn Owl in Florida has fallen sharply: down 53% on the route-weighted index since 1987.

-53%Since 1987TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
15Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
22YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable American Barn Owl Trends in FloridaNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for American Barn Owl in Florida. See the full index history below.

American Barn Owl Population Forecast in Florida

If the recent trend holds, American Barn Owl in Florida is projected to stay roughly flat through 2028, near 0.01 (95% range 0.00–0.04). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±42.8%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

n/aChange by 2028TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.01Projected 2028 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–0.0495% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±42.8%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
19802028
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20240.020.000.04
20250.020.000.04
20260.010.000.04
20270.010.000.04
20280.010.000.04

American Barn Owl Survey Routes in Florida

Routes recording American Barn Owl in Florida.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Green Swamp320062004
Shawano220021987
Sanderson119931993
Pleasant Gr119961993
Boca Raton119801980
Andytown119821982
Lovedale120012001
Belmont120112011
Davie119871987
Homestead120132013
Shawano 2120072004
Holey Land120142014
Dupuis W.E.A120192012
Clewiston120232016
Ft Lonesome120152013

American Barn Owl Population Trend in Other States

alabamaarizonaarkansascaliforniacoloradodelawaregeorgiaidahokansaskentuckylouisianamarylandmississippimissourinebraskanevadanew-mexiconorth-carolinaoklahomaoregonsouth-dakotatennesseetexasutahwashingtonwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.