BirdAnalyst
Species · Oklahoma · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

American Barn Owl Population Trend in Oklahoma

All statesGeneralists

American Barn Owl in Oklahoma has risen sharply: up 57% on the route-weighted index since 1989.

+57%Since 1989TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
12Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
22YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable American Barn Owl Trends in OklahomaNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

American Barn Owl has risen sharply in Oklahoma: up 57% on the route-weighted index since 1989.

American Barn Owl Population Forecast in Oklahoma

If the recent trend holds, American Barn Owl in Oklahoma is projected to stay roughly flat through 2028, near 0.06 (95% range 0.00–0.12). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±60.2%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

n/aChange by 2028TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.06Projected 2028 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–0.1295% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±60.2%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, American Barn Owl in Oklahoma is projected to stay roughly flat through 2028, near 0.06 (95% range 0.00–0.12). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±60.2%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19772028
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20240.060.000.12
20250.060.000.12
20260.060.000.12
20270.060.000.12
20280.060.000.12

American Barn Owl Survey Routes in Oklahoma

Routes recording American Barn Owl in Oklahoma.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Keyes219971994
Mt. Herman220032003
Rosston120042004
Hunter120172017
Jet119941994
Randlett119921992
Duncan120062006
Eagle City119891989
Erick120231995
Welch119811977
Sickles120172017
Lookout120102010

American Barn Owl Population Trend in Other States

alabamaarizonaarkansascaliforniacoloradodelawarefloridageorgiaidahokansaskentuckylouisianamarylandmississippimissourinebraskanevadanew-mexiconorth-carolinaoregonsouth-dakotatennesseetexasutahwashingtonwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.