BirdAnalyst
Guild · Florida · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Shorebirds In Florida

All statesFlorida

6 species in this guild. As a group they are -40%Guild trendA mean-index aggregate across the species in this group — the structural direction of the guild, with individual-species noise smoothed out.Full methodology → since 1968.

Guild SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

guild collapsecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Shorebirds as a group have declined in Florida, down 40% since 1968.

Shorebirds In Florida Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Shorebirds in Florida is projected to rise about 31% by 2029 — from 0.34 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.45 (95% range 0.06–0.83). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±28.2%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+31%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.45Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.06–0.8395% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±28.2%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Shorebirds in Florida is projected to rise about 31% by 2029 — from 0.34 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.45 (95% range 0.06–0.83). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±28.2%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20250.470.090.86
20260.470.080.85
20270.460.080.84
20280.450.070.84
20290.450.060.83

Member Species In Florida

Shorebirds species in Florida.
TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
Black-necked StiltRecurvirostridae-87%
American OystercatcherHaematopodidae-85%
Wilson's PloverCharadriidae-81%
WilletScolopacidae-62%
KilldeerCharadriidae-53%
American WoodcockScolopacidae-30%

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.