BirdAnalyst
Guild · Colorado · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Birds Of Prey In Colorado

All statesColorado

19 species in this guild. As a group they are -41%Guild trendA mean-index aggregate across the species in this group — the structural direction of the guild, with individual-species noise smoothed out.Full methodology → since 1970.

Guild SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

guild collapsecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Birds of prey as a group have declined in Colorado, down 41% since 1970.

Birds Of Prey In Colorado Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Birds of prey in Colorado is projected to fall about 20% by 2030 — from 0.46 in 2025 to a central estimate of 0.36 (95% range 0.12–0.61). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±21.6%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-20%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.36Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.12–0.6195% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±21.6%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Birds of prey in Colorado is projected to fall about 20% by 2030 — from 0.46 in 2025 to a central estimate of 0.36 (95% range 0.12–0.61). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±21.6%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19682030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20260.390.140.64
20270.380.130.63
20280.380.130.62
20290.370.120.62
20300.360.120.61

Member Species In Colorado

Birds of prey species in Colorado.
TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
Northern HarrierAccipitridae-82%
Sharp-shinned HawkAccipitridae-67%
Ferruginous HawkAccipitridae-66%
Prairie FalconFalconidae-65%
American GoshawkAccipitridae-59%
Great Horned OwlStrigidae-59%
Short-eared OwlStrigidae-57%
Burrowing OwlStrigidae-45%
American KestrelFalconidae-31%
American Barn OwlTytonidae-27%
Cooper's HawkAccipitridae-18%
Golden EagleAccipitridae-13%
Northern Pygmy-OwlStrigidae-5%
Swainson's HawkAccipitridae+47%
Bald EagleAccipitridae+70%
Peregrine FalconFalconidae+118%
Red-tailed HawkAccipitridae+381%
OspreyPandionidae+393%
Turkey VultureCathartidae+434%

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.