BirdAnalyst
Guild · Colorado · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Birds Of Prey In Colorado

All statesColorado

18 species in this guild. As a group they are -42%Guild trendA mean-index aggregate across the species in this group — the structural direction of the guild, with individual-species noise smoothed out.Full methodology → since 1970.

Guild SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

guild collapsecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Birds of prey as a group have declined in Colorado, down 42% since 1970.

Birds Of Prey In Colorado Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Birds of prey in Colorado is projected to fall about 24% by 2029 — from 0.49 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.38 (95% range 0.13–0.62). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±18.4%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-24%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.38Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.13–0.6295% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±18.4%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Birds of prey in Colorado is projected to fall about 24% by 2029 — from 0.49 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.38 (95% range 0.13–0.62). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±18.4%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19682029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20250.400.150.65
20260.390.140.64
20270.390.140.63
20280.380.130.63
20290.380.130.62

Member Species In Colorado

Birds of prey species in Colorado.
TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
Northern HarrierAccipitridae-83%
Sharp-shinned HawkAccipitridae-70%
Short-eared OwlStrigidae-69%
Prairie FalconFalconidae-67%
American GoshawkAccipitridae-60%
Burrowing OwlStrigidae-59%
Ferruginous HawkAccipitridae-58%
Great Horned OwlStrigidae-51%
American KestrelFalconidae-29%
Cooper's HawkAccipitridae-21%
Golden EagleAccipitridae-16%
Northern Pygmy-OwlStrigidae-5%
Bald EagleAccipitridae+40%
Swainson's HawkAccipitridae+44%
OspreyPandionidae+247%
Peregrine FalconFalconidae+257%
Turkey VultureCathartidae+359%
Red-tailed HawkAccipitridae+372%

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.