BirdAnalyst
Guild · Vermont · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Generalists In Vermont

All statesVermont

47 species in this guild. As a group they are -53%Guild trendA mean-index aggregate across the species in this group — the structural direction of the guild, with individual-species noise smoothed out.Full methodology → since 1968.

Guild SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

guild collapsecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Generalists as a group have fallen sharply in Vermont, down 53% since 1968.

Generalists In Vermont Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Generalists in Vermont is projected to fall about 33% by 2029 — from 5.5 in 2024 to a central estimate of 3.7 (95% range 2.3–5.1). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±10%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-33%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
3.7Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
2.3–5.195% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±10%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Generalists in Vermont is projected to fall about 33% by 2029 — from 5.5 in 2024 to a central estimate of 3.7 (95% range 2.3–5.1). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±10%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20254.22.85.5
20264.02.75.4
20273.92.55.3
20283.82.45.2
20293.72.35.1

Member Species In Vermont

Generalists species in Vermont.
TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
Eastern TowheePasserellidae-91%
Field SparrowPasserellidae-87%
House SparrowPasseridae-85%
Black-billed CuckooCuculidae-82%
Baltimore OrioleIcteridae-82%
White-throated SparrowPasserellidae-81%
European StarlingSturnidae-79%
Brown-headed CowbirdIcteridae-77%
Brown ThrasherMimidae-75%
American KestrelFalconidae-73%
Evening GrosbeakFringillidae-71%
Pine SiskinFringillidae-69%
Purple FinchFringillidae-68%
Red-winged BlackbirdIcteridae-66%
Common GrackleIcteridae-63%
Lincoln's SparrowPasserellidae-59%
Red-tailed HawkAccipitridae-54%
Belted KingfisherAlcedinidae-49%
Rose-breasted GrosbeakCardinalidae-48%
American GoldfinchFringillidae-44%
Northern MockingbirdMimidae-40%
Scarlet TanagerCardinalidae-33%
Yellow-billed CuckooCuculidae-27%
Blue JayCorvidae-19%
Ruffed GrousePhasianidae-19%
Song SparrowPasserellidae-17%
Cooper's HawkAccipitridae-13%
Chipping SparrowPasserellidae-9%
Northern HarrierAccipitridae-5%
American CrowCorvidae-2%
Gray CatbirdMimidae+11%
Ruby-throated HummingbirdTrochilidae+11%
Rock PigeonColumbidae+15%
Swamp SparrowPasserellidae+28%
Indigo BuntingCardinalidae+33%
Sharp-shinned HawkAccipitridae+48%
Cedar WaxwingBombycillidae+51%
House FinchFringillidae+66%
Red-shouldered HawkAccipitridae+81%
Broad-winged HawkAccipitridae+216%
OspreyPandionidae+292%
Barred OwlStrigidae+327%
Mourning DoveColumbidae+394%
Turkey VultureCathartidae+492%
Northern CardinalCardinalidae+869%
Wild TurkeyPhasianidae21×
Common RavenCorvidae26×

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.