BirdAnalyst
Guild · Ohio · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Generalists In Ohio

All statesOhio

50 species in this guild. As a group they are -49%Guild trendA mean-index aggregate across the species in this group — the structural direction of the guild, with individual-species noise smoothed out.Full methodology → since 1968.

Guild SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

guild collapsecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Generalists as a group have declined in Ohio, down 49% since 1968.

Generalists In Ohio Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Generalists in Ohio is projected to fall about 28% by 2029 — from 12 in 2024 to a central estimate of 8.5 (95% range 5.7–11). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±19.1%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-28%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
8.5Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
5.7–1195% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±19.1%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Generalists in Ohio is projected to fall about 28% by 2029 — from 12 in 2024 to a central estimate of 8.5 (95% range 5.7–11). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±19.1%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20259.46.612
20269.26.412
20278.96.112
20288.75.912
20298.55.711

Member Species In Ohio

Generalists species in Ohio.
TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
Summer TanagerCardinalidae-80%
Loggerhead ShrikeLaniidae-79%
House SparrowPasseridae-77%
Red-winged BlackbirdIcteridae-75%
Yellow-breasted ChatIcteriidae-69%
Field SparrowPasserellidae-67%
Black-billed CuckooCuculidae-65%
Common GrackleIcteridae-61%
Rock PigeonColumbidae-58%
Ruffed GrousePhasianidae-40%
Brown ThrasherMimidae-40%
European StarlingSturnidae-40%
Sharp-shinned HawkAccipitridae-28%
Song SparrowPasserellidae-12%
Baltimore OrioleIcteridae-4%
Brown-headed CowbirdIcteridae-2%
American GoldfinchFringillidae+1%
Northern HarrierAccipitridae+7%
Purple FinchFringillidae+12%
Indigo BuntingCardinalidae+13%
Northern MockingbirdMimidae+16%
Belted KingfisherAlcedinidae+17%
Eastern Screech-OwlStrigidae+21%
American CrowCorvidae+29%
Yellow-billed CuckooCuculidae+31%
American KestrelFalconidae+38%
Mourning DoveColumbidae+48%
Eastern TowheePasserellidae+54%
Great Horned OwlStrigidae+62%
Swamp SparrowPasserellidae+65%
Blue JayCorvidae+73%
Cooper's HawkAccipitridae+78%
Northern CardinalCardinalidae+107%
Gray CatbirdMimidae+140%
Barred OwlStrigidae+144%
Chipping SparrowPasserellidae+162%
Broad-winged HawkAccipitridae+201%
Rose-breasted GrosbeakCardinalidae+247%
Scarlet TanagerCardinalidae+254%
Ruby-throated HummingbirdTrochilidae+338%
Cedar WaxwingBombycillidae+372%
Orchard OrioleIcteridae+377%
Red-tailed HawkAccipitridae+407%
Bald EagleAccipitridae+734%
Turkey VultureCathartidae+739%
Wild TurkeyPhasianidae+824%
Red-shouldered HawkAccipitridae13×
Black VultureCathartidae14×
Blue GrosbeakCardinalidae15×
House FinchFringillidae40×

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.