BirdAnalyst
Guild · Ohio · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Generalists In Ohio

All statesOhio

9 species in this guild. As a group they are -57%Guild trendA mean-index aggregate across the species in this group — the structural direction of the guild, with individual-species noise smoothed out.Full methodology → since 1968.

Guild SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

guild collapsecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Generalists as a group have fallen sharply in Ohio, down 57% since 1968.

Generalists In Ohio Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Generalists in Ohio is projected to fall about 23% by 2030 — from 28 in 2025 to a central estimate of 21 (95% range 12–30). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±17.8%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-23%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
21Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
12–3095% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±17.8%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Generalists in Ohio is projected to fall about 23% by 2030 — from 28 in 2025 to a central estimate of 21 (95% range 12–30). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±17.8%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
2026241533
2027231532
2028231431
2029221330
2030211230

Member Species In Ohio

Generalists species in Ohio.
TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
House SparrowPasseridae-79%
Common GrackleIcteridae-67%
Rock PigeonColumbidae-57%
European StarlingSturnidae-39%
Brown-headed CowbirdIcteridae-9%
Northern MockingbirdMimidae+11%
American CrowCorvidae+23%
Mourning DoveColumbidae+42%
House FinchFringillidae39×

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.