BirdAnalyst
Guild · Nebraska · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Game Birds In Nebraska

All statesNebraska

5 species in this guild. As a group they are -43%Guild trendA mean-index aggregate across the species in this group — the structural direction of the guild, with individual-species noise smoothed out.Full methodology → since 1969.

Guild SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

guild collapsecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Game birds as a group have declined in Nebraska, down 43% since 1969.

Game Birds In Nebraska Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Game birds in Nebraska is projected to fall about 28% by 2029 — from 5.4 in 2024 to a central estimate of 3.9 (95% range 0.00–9.7). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±18.5%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-28%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
3.9Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–9.795% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±18.5%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Game birds in Nebraska is projected to fall about 28% by 2029 — from 5.4 in 2024 to a central estimate of 3.9 (95% range 0.00–9.7). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±18.5%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19672029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20254.50.0010
20264.30.0010
20274.20.0010.0
20284.00.009.8
20293.90.009.7

Member Species In Nebraska

Game birds species in Nebraska.
TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
Sharp-tailed GrousePhasianidae-58%
Ring-necked PheasantPhasianidae-57%
Northern BobwhiteOdontophoridae-8%
Greater Prairie-ChickenPhasianidae+327%
Wild TurkeyPhasianidae45×

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.