BirdAnalyst
Guild · Missouri · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Game Birds In Missouri

All statesMissouri

4 species in this guild. As a group they are -84%Guild trendA mean-index aggregate across the species in this group — the structural direction of the guild, with individual-species noise smoothed out.Full methodology → since 1969.

Guild SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

guild collapsecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Game birds as a group have collapsed in Missouri, down 84% since 1969.

Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Game birds in Missouri is projected to fall about 78% by 2029 — from 3.4 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.74 (95% range 0.00–7.1). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±39.9%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-78%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.74Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–7.195% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±39.9%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Game birds in Missouri is projected to fall about 78% by 2029 — from 3.4 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.74 (95% range 0.00–7.1). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±39.9%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19672029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20251.90.008.3
20261.60.008.0
20271.30.007.7
20281.00.007.4
20290.740.007.1

Member Species In Missouri

Game birds species in Missouri.
TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
Greater Prairie-ChickenPhasianidae-79%
Northern BobwhiteOdontophoridae-78%
Ring-necked PheasantPhasianidae-76%
Wild TurkeyPhasianidae+599%

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.