BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 11 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Yellow-throated Vireo In Prairie Potholes

All regionsPrairie PotholesForest birds

Yellow-throated Vireo in Prairie Potholes has surged: up 344% on the route-weighted index since 1973.

+344%Since 1973TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
40Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
51YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Yellow-throated Vireo has surged in Prairie Potholes: up 344% on the route-weighted index since 1973.

Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Yellow-throated Vireo in Prairie Potholes is projected to rise about 13% by 2029 — from 0.23 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.25 (95% range 0.11–0.40). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±11.9%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+13%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.25Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.11–0.4095% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±11.9%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Yellow-throated Vireo in Prairie Potholes is projected to rise about 13% by 2029 — from 0.23 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.25 (95% range 0.11–0.40). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±11.9%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19692029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20250.240.090.39
20260.240.100.39
20270.250.100.39
20280.250.100.40
20290.250.110.40

Routes In Prairie Potholes

Routes recording Yellow-throated Vireo in Prairie Potholes.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Turtle MtnsNORTH-DAKOTA72024
Lake BronsonMINNESOTA52011
CooperstownNORTH-DAKOTA42024
BeltramiMINNESOTA22024
WylieMINNESOTA22019
GryglaMINNESOTA22016
PantherIOWA12022
WashingtonIOWA12016
ClareIOWA12001
GarnerIOWA11987
HartlandMINNESOTA12016
ArlingtonMINNESOTA12024
CourtlandMINNESOTA12021
Redwood FallMINNESOTA12011
MaynardMINNESOTA12005
DawsonMINNESOTA12005
AppletonMINNESOTA12011
GluekMINNESOTA12015
GlyndonMINNESOTA12023
TenneyMINNESOTA12014
OkleeMINNESOTA12021
ErieMINNESOTA12016
BadgerMINNESOTA12011
FairmontMINNESOTA12023
FranklinMINNESOTA12007

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.