BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 22 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Willow Flycatcher In Eastern Tallgrass Prairie

All regionsEastern Tallgrass PrairieAerial insectivores

Willow Flycatcher in Eastern Tallgrass Prairie has declined: down 29% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

-29%Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
225Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
58YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Willow Flycatcher in Eastern Tallgrass Prairie. See the full index history below.

Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Willow Flycatcher in Eastern Tallgrass Prairie is projected to stay roughly flat through 2029, near 0.65 (95% range 0.31–0.98). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±12.8%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+5%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.65Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.31–0.9895% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±12.8%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
19662029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20250.660.320.99
20260.660.320.99
20270.650.320.99
20280.650.310.99
20290.650.310.98

Routes In Eastern Tallgrass Prairie

Routes recording Willow Flycatcher in Eastern Tallgrass Prairie.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
CubaINDIANA82021
ClaytonILLINOIS72023
Kahoka2MISSOURI72023
LondonOHIO72012
BelleviewILLINOIS62023
Kankakee SandsINDIANA62024
FultonOHIO62024
AldenILLINOIS52023
Davis CornerIOWA52024
BloomvilleOHIO52024
WayneILLINOIS42024
StillwellILLINOIS42023
RobinsonILLINOIS42023
DarmstadtILLINOIS42023
New BrunswickINDIANA42024
Witts StationINDIANA42024
KunkleOHIO42024
KentonOHIO42013
PutnamILLINOIS32024
FloraILLINOIS32002
Camp PointILLINOIS32023
TiptonINDIANA31991
SwayzeeINDIANA32013
PlainfieldINDIANA31999
ExlineIOWA32024

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.