BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 22 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

White-breasted Nuthatch In Eastern Tallgrass Prairie

All regionsEastern Tallgrass PrairieForest birds

White-breasted Nuthatch in Eastern Tallgrass Prairie has surged: up 407% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

+407%Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
270Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
58YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

White-breasted Nuthatch has surged in Eastern Tallgrass Prairie: up 407% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

Forecast

If the recent trend holds, White-breasted Nuthatch in Eastern Tallgrass Prairie is projected to stay roughly flat through 2029, near 2.3 (95% range 1.8–2.8). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±13.7%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-2%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
2.3Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
1.8–2.895% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±13.7%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, White-breasted Nuthatch in Eastern Tallgrass Prairie is projected to stay roughly flat through 2029, near 2.3 (95% range 1.8–2.8). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±13.7%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20252.21.72.7
20262.21.72.7
20272.31.82.7
20282.31.82.8
20292.31.82.8

Routes In Eastern Tallgrass Prairie

Routes recording White-breasted Nuthatch in Eastern Tallgrass Prairie.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
OhioMISSOURI152024
UnionMISSOURI141999
River FallsWISCONSIN142024
MoselleMISSOURI112024
TecumsehOHIO111982
WallaceINDIANA102024
Witts StationINDIANA102024
Queen CityMISSOURI102021
EmdenMISSOURI102024
AuburnMISSOURI102024
MarionOHIO102023
Deer CreekILLINOIS92024
BradburyILLINOIS92024
Red RockIOWA92024
New PointMISSOURI92024
West ElktonOHIO92012
BelleviewILLINOIS82024
FilleyMISSOURI82024
LucerneMISSOURI82021
Harveysburg 2OHIO82024
EnonOHIO82024
RaymondWISCONSIN82024
WayneILLINOIS72024
St MorganILLINOIS72022
GalvestonINDIANA72024

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.