BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 11 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

White-breasted Nuthatch In Prairie Potholes

All regionsPrairie PotholesForest birds

White-breasted Nuthatch in Prairie Potholes has surged: up 122% on the route-weighted index since 1970.

+122%Since 1970TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
64Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
55YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

White-breasted Nuthatch has surged in Prairie Potholes: up 122% on the route-weighted index since 1970.

Forecast

If the recent trend holds, White-breasted Nuthatch in Prairie Potholes is projected to rise about 23% by 2029 — from 0.39 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.48 (95% range 0.21–0.76). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±23.5%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+23%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.48Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.21–0.7695% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±23.5%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, White-breasted Nuthatch in Prairie Potholes is projected to rise about 23% by 2029 — from 0.39 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.48 (95% range 0.21–0.76). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±23.5%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19672029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20250.470.190.74
20260.470.190.75
20270.470.200.75
20280.480.200.76
20290.480.210.76

Routes In Prairie Potholes

Routes recording White-breasted Nuthatch in Prairie Potholes.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
BeltramiMINNESOTA72024
SpartaNEBRASKA62021
EmeradoNORTH-DAKOTA62024
AbercrombieNORTH-DAKOTA62012
TildenNEBRASKA52024
OkleeMINNESOTA42021
MidwayNEBRASKA42023
KemptonNORTH-DAKOTA42017
CooperstownNORTH-DAKOTA42024
TracyMINNESOTA32023
Abercrombie 2NORTH-DAKOTA32015
CourtlandMINNESOTA22023
AppletonMINNESOTA22023
WylieMINNESOTA22024
GryglaMINNESOTA22017
FranklinMINNESOTA22022
Chokio NorthMINNESOTA22015
Big StoneMINNESOTA22011
Eagle CreekNEBRASKA22022
CarpioNORTH-DAKOTA21987
PantherIOWA12023
WashingtonIOWA12023
ZearingIOWA11994
ScrantonIOWA11998
ClareIOWA12018

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.