BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 10 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Western Bluebird In Northern Rockies

All regionsNorthern RockiesForest birds

Western Bluebird in Northern Rockies has declined: down 29% on the route-weighted index since 1970.

-29%Since 1970TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
69Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
55YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Western Bluebird in Northern Rockies. See the full index history below.

Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Western Bluebird in Northern Rockies is projected to rise about 36% by 2029 — from 0.18 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.24 (95% range 0.05–0.43). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±49.9%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+36%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.24Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.05–0.4395% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±49.9%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Western Bluebird in Northern Rockies is projected to rise about 36% by 2029 — from 0.18 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.24 (95% range 0.05–0.43). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±49.9%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19682029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20250.240.050.43
20260.240.050.43
20270.240.050.43
20280.240.050.43
20290.240.050.43

Routes In Northern Rockies

Routes recording Western Bluebird in Northern Rockies.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
GrangevilleIDAHO91986
AlbeeOREGON62023
BarnhouseOREGON52024
BoulderWYOMING51997
Silver CreekOREGON42017
SilviesOREGON42023
Flamin GorgeWYOMING41994
MaybellCOLORADO32006
BurgdorfIDAHO31988
ClancyMONTANA32017
Mount VernonOREGON32024
Howard Mdws.OREGON32019
Black Mtn.OREGON32004
NorthportWASHINGTON32018
CascadeIDAHO21984
CoolinIDAHO22024
Salmon RiverIDAHO22003
FeathervilleIDAHO22024
Rochat DivdeIDAHO22016
Libby DamMONTANA21992
St RegisMONTANA22022
AugustaMONTANA21999
GlenMONTANA22016
VictorMONTANA22015
OchocoOREGON21982

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.