BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 22 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Summer Tanager In Eastern Tallgrass Prairie

All regionsEastern Tallgrass PrairieGeneralists

Summer Tanager in Eastern Tallgrass Prairie has surged: up 736% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

+736%Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
144Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
58YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Summer Tanager has surged in Eastern Tallgrass Prairie: up 736% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

Summer Tanager In Eastern Tallgrass Prairie Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Summer Tanager in Eastern Tallgrass Prairie is projected to fall about 15% by 2029 — from 0.97 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.83 (95% range 0.53–1.1). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±39.3%, with 0% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-15%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.83Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.53–1.195% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±39.3%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Summer Tanager in Eastern Tallgrass Prairie is projected to fall about 15% by 2029 — from 0.97 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.83 (95% range 0.53–1.1). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±39.3%, with 0% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20250.780.471.1
20260.790.481.1
20270.800.501.1
20280.810.511.1
20290.830.531.1

Routes In Eastern Tallgrass Prairie

Routes recording Summer Tanager in Eastern Tallgrass Prairie.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
FilleyMISSOURI172024
HuntsvilleMISSOURI122024
UnionMISSOURI111999
Trading PostKANSAS102024
BelleviewILLINOIS92024
WrefordKANSAS82024
OhioMISSOURI72024
MoselleMISSOURI72024
GrantvilleKANSAS62022
BucyrusKANSAS62024
MilfordMISSOURI62024
KeetonvilleOKLAHOMA62022
Mascoutah LkILLINOIS52024
KearneyMISSOURI52024
ElmoMISSOURI52023
GeraldMISSOURI52024
St MorganILLINOIS42022
DoverKANSAS42022
SenecaKANSAS42022
Le LoupKANSAS42021
OlsburgKANSAS42024
MadisonMISSOURI42023
FrazierMISSOURI42024
GildehouseMISSOURI41989
WestonMISSOURI42021

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.