BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 11 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Sedge Wren In Prairie Potholes

All regionsPrairie PotholesGrassland birds

Sedge Wren in Prairie Potholes has surged: up 588% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

+588%Since 1969TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
96Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
57YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Sedge Wren has surged in Prairie Potholes: up 588% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

Sedge Wren In Prairie Potholes Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Sedge Wren in Prairie Potholes is projected to rise about 93% by 2029 — from 2.7 in 2024 to a central estimate of 5.2 (95% range 2.3–8.0). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±124.5%, with 20% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+93%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
5.2Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
2.3–8.095% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±124.5%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Sedge Wren in Prairie Potholes is projected to rise about 93% by 2029 — from 2.7 in 2024 to a central estimate of 5.2 (95% range 2.3–8.0). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±124.5%, with 20% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19672029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20254.92.07.7
20264.92.17.8
20275.02.27.8
20285.12.37.9
20295.22.38.0

Routes In Prairie Potholes

Routes recording Sedge Wren in Prairie Potholes.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
LaneSOUTH-DAKOTA321999
Sheyenne LkNORTH-DAKOTA312024
Big StoneMINNESOTA292012
RoswellSOUTH-DAKOTA292014
TurtonSOUTH-DAKOTA252024
TracyMINNESOTA242024
Lake BronsonMINNESOTA192011
ErieMINNESOTA182017
ReganNORTH-DAKOTA172022
Horsehead LkNORTH-DAKOTA152024
WorthingtonMINNESOTA142024
GryglaMINNESOTA132017
White LakeSOUTH-DAKOTA112011
BadgerMINNESOTA102018
AppletonMINNESOTA82023
Chokio NorthMINNESOTA82024
KemptonNORTH-DAKOTA82017
NilesNORTH-DAKOTA82024
MontpelierNORTH-DAKOTA82024
TrippSOUTH-DAKOTA82019
RollaNORTH-DAKOTA72022
Bowesmont 2NORTH-DAKOTA72016
VolgaSOUTH-DAKOTA72019
VeblenSOUTH-DAKOTA72023
OkleeMINNESOTA62021

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.