BirdAnalyst
Species · Texas · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Scaled Quail Population Trend in Texas

All statesGeneralists

Scaled Quail in Texas has fallen sharply: down 65% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

-65%Since 1969TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
112Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
57YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Scaled Quail Trends in TexasNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc declinecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Scaled Quail has fallen sharply in Texas: down 65% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

Scaled Quail Population Forecast in Texas

If the recent trend holds, Scaled Quail in Texas is projected to stay roughly flat through 2029, near 2.2 (95% range 0.00–5.1). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±38.2%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-2%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
2.2Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–5.195% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±38.2%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Scaled Quail in Texas is projected to stay roughly flat through 2029, near 2.2 (95% range 0.00–5.1). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±38.2%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19672029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20252.40.005.3
20262.30.005.3
20272.30.005.2
20282.30.005.2
20292.20.005.1

Scaled Quail Survey Routes in Texas

Routes recording Scaled Quail in Texas.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Pecos5220172017
Black Gap3920231988
Longfellow3920241968
Pumpville3720242006
Plains3620241968
Casa Piedra3120231986
Wink2819861975
Ft. Davis2820232004
Marfa2520242004
Toyahvale2320241996
Comstock2220231967
Delaware Crk2220151971
Salt Flat2120152003
Pear Valley1920051969
Pedro Creek1920051996
Girvin1820241975
Saragosa1820242022
Altuda1720231967
Shafter1619851969
Dalhart1620241994
Hot Springs1520241967
Langtry1520001994
Bear Mtn1420241988
Kermit1419991999
Stiles1420241995

Scaled Quail Population Trend in Other States

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Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.