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Species · Texas · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Scaled Quail Population Trend in Texas

All statesGame birds

Scaled Quail in Texas has fallen sharply: down 51% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

-51%Since 1969TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
114Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
58YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Scaled Quail Trends in TexasNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc declinecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Scaled Quail has fallen sharply in Texas: down 51% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

Scaled Quail Population Forecast in Texas

If the recent trend holds, Scaled Quail in Texas is projected to fall about 44% by 2030 — from 4.1 in 2025 to a central estimate of 2.3 (95% range 0.00–5.2). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±41.9%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-44%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
2.3Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–5.295% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±41.9%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Scaled Quail in Texas is projected to fall about 44% by 2030 — from 4.1 in 2025 to a central estimate of 2.3 (95% range 0.00–5.2). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±41.9%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19672030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20262.50.005.4
20272.40.005.3
20282.40.005.3
20292.30.005.2
20302.30.005.2

Scaled Quail Survey Routes in Texas

Routes recording Scaled Quail in Texas.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Pumpville10320252006
Casa Piedra7020251986
Toyahvale5320251996
Pecos5220172017
Plains3920251968
Black Gap3520251988
Skellytown3120251994
Marfa3020252004
Wink2819861975
Comstock2720251967
Dalhart2520251994
Girvin2320251975
Devils R Cyn2320251994
Coyanda Draw2320251994
Delaware Crk2220151971
Ft. Davis2220252004
Salt Flat2120152003
Marathon2020252004
Pear Valley1920051969
Pedro Creek1920051996
Rankin1720251967
Altuda1720231967
Hot Springs1620251967
Shafter1619851969
Langtry1520001994

Scaled Quail Population Trend in Other States

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Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.