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Species · Arizona · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Scaled Quail Population Trend in Arizona

All statesGame birds

Scaled Quail in Arizona has increased: up 28% on the route-weighted index since 1970.

+28%Since 1970TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
11Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
55YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Scaled Quail Trends in ArizonaNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Scaled Quail in Arizona. See the full index history below.

Scaled Quail Population Forecast in Arizona

If the recent trend holds, Scaled Quail in Arizona is projected to fall about 25% by 2030 — from 0.88 in 2025 to a central estimate of 0.66 (95% range 0.00–2.4). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±103.7%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-25%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.66Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–2.495% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±103.7%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Scaled Quail in Arizona is projected to fall about 25% by 2030 — from 0.88 in 2025 to a central estimate of 0.66 (95% range 0.00–2.4). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±103.7%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19682030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20260.720.002.4
20270.710.002.4
20280.690.002.4
20290.680.002.4
20300.660.002.4

Scaled Quail Survey Routes in Arizona

Routes recording Scaled Quail in Arizona.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Dragoon1620091993
Sunizona1519971968
Rucker1320091993
Sunizona 21120252001
Mcneal1120251992
Pomerene1020251968
Amado420251993
Greasewood419961995
San Simon220231969
Sahuarita220241993
Portal120221987

Scaled Quail Population Trend in Other States

coloradokansasnew-mexicooklahomatexasutahwashington

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.