BirdAnalyst
Species · New Mexico · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Scaled Quail Population Trend in New Mexico

All statesGame birds

Scaled Quail in New Mexico has held roughly steady: up 9% on the route-weighted index since 1970.

+9%Since 1970TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
68Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
57YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Scaled Quail Trends in New MexicoNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Scaled Quail in New Mexico. See the full index history below.

Scaled Quail Population Forecast in New Mexico

If the recent trend holds, Scaled Quail in New Mexico is projected to fall about 43% by 2030 — from 11 in 2025 to a central estimate of 6.5 (95% range 0.02–13). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±32.4%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-43%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
6.5Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.02–1395% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±32.4%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Scaled Quail in New Mexico is projected to fall about 43% by 2030 — from 11 in 2025 to a central estimate of 6.5 (95% range 0.02–13). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±32.4%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19682030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20266.60.1013
20276.60.0813
20286.60.0613
20296.50.0413
20306.50.0213

Scaled Quail Survey Routes in New Mexico

Routes recording Scaled Quail in New Mexico.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Hobbs7920251997
Bitter Lake6520251994
Roswell6320251968
Deming5219751968
San Simon3720191979
Logan3720251977
Floyd3220251968
Lakewood3220211980
Cooley Lake3120251968
Pep2720241992
Red Rock2720251992
Rosebud2520251994
Sunshine Wll2020251992
Sedan1820252004
Variadero1720221994
Clovis1720242000
Pastura1420251993
Rodeo1320251974
Shiprock1320251995
Valencia1219971968
San Antonio1119771974
Nageesi1020251968
Sabinoso1020211980
Tucumcari919751975
Gage920251968

Scaled Quail Population Trend in Other States

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Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.