BirdAnalyst
Species · New Mexico · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Scaled Quail Population Trend in New Mexico

All statesGeneralists

Scaled Quail in New Mexico has edged down: down 13% on the route-weighted index since 1970.

-13%Since 1970TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
68Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
56YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Scaled Quail Trends in New MexicoNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Scaled Quail in New Mexico. See the full index history below.

Scaled Quail Population Forecast in New Mexico

If the recent trend holds, Scaled Quail in New Mexico is projected to fall about 22% by 2029 — from 7.7 in 2024 to a central estimate of 6.0 (95% range 0.00–12). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±29%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-22%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
6.0Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–1295% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±29%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Scaled Quail in New Mexico is projected to fall about 22% by 2029 — from 7.7 in 2024 to a central estimate of 6.0 (95% range 0.00–12). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±29%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19682029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20256.10.0013
20266.10.0013
20276.10.0012
20286.00.0012
20296.00.0012

Scaled Quail Survey Routes in New Mexico

Routes recording Scaled Quail in New Mexico.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Deming5219751968
Hobbs5220241997
Logan3820241977
San Simon3720191979
Red Rock3520241992
Lakewood3220211980
Roswell3020231968
Gage2720241968
Pep2720241992
Cooley Lake2220241968
Bitter Lake2220231994
Hatchet Peak1920241992
Columbus1820241992
Variadero1720221994
Clovis1720242000
Floyd1420241968
Valencia1219971968
Sedan1220242004
San Antonio1119771974
Sabinoso1020211980
Tucumcari919751975
Escondida920241998
Rosebud820241994
Engle819891979
Rodeo720241974

Scaled Quail Population Trend in Other States

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Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.