BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 24 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Ruby-throated Hummingbird In Central Hardwoods

All regionsCentral HardwoodsGeneralists

Ruby-throated Hummingbird in Central Hardwoods has surged: up 168% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

+168%Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
164Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
58YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Ruby-throated Hummingbird has surged in Central Hardwoods: up 168% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

Ruby-throated Hummingbird In Central Hardwoods Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Ruby-throated Hummingbird in Central Hardwoods is projected to rise about 74% by 2029 — from 1.1 in 2024 to a central estimate of 1.9 (95% range 1.4–2.4). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±38.3%, with 40% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+74%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
1.9Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
1.4–2.495% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±38.3%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Ruby-throated Hummingbird in Central Hardwoods is projected to rise about 74% by 2029 — from 1.1 in 2024 to a central estimate of 1.9 (95% range 1.4–2.4). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±38.3%, with 40% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20251.81.32.3
20261.81.32.3
20271.81.42.3
20281.91.42.4
20291.91.42.4

Routes In Central Hardwoods

Routes recording Ruby-throated Hummingbird in Central Hardwoods.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
GatewoodKENTUCKY122019
FarwellARKANSAS112018
RoyaltonILLINOIS82024
Indian MoundTENNESSEE81991
PulaskiILLINOIS72024
SyracuseMISSOURI72024
BelknapILLINOIS62024
GraydonMISSOURI62024
Cave In RockILLINOIS52024
PleasurevillKENTUCKY52022
WoodlandvilleMISSOURI52024
MarshallARKANSAS42021
HegiraKENTUCKY42019
SwedenMISSOURI42021
CascadeMISSOURI42024
BarksMISSOURI42024
MarshfieldMISSOURI42022
EugeneMISSOURI42024
RichlandMISSOURI42021
TullahomaTENNESSEE42015
AvocaARKANSAS32023
Beaverdam LkILLINOIS32022
SpencerINDIANA32019
Clear SpringINDIANA32022
MerrimacKENTUCKY32024

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.