BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 30 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Red-tailed Hawk In New England / Mid-Atlantic Coast

All regionsNew England / Mid-Atlantic CoastGeneralists

Red-tailed Hawk in New England / Mid-Atlantic Coast has surged: up 574% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

+574%Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
151Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
58YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Red-tailed Hawk has surged in New England / Mid-Atlantic Coast: up 574% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

Red-tailed Hawk In New England / Mid-Atlantic Coast Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Red-tailed Hawk in New England / Mid-Atlantic Coast is projected to stay roughly flat through 2029, near 1.2 (95% range 1.0–1.5). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±19.7%, with 60% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-6%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
1.2Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
1.0–1.595% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±19.7%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Red-tailed Hawk in New England / Mid-Atlantic Coast is projected to stay roughly flat through 2029, near 1.2 (95% range 1.0–1.5). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±19.7%, with 60% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20251.20.941.4
20261.20.961.4
20271.20.981.4
20281.21.001.4
20291.21.01.5

Routes In New England / Mid-Atlantic Coast

Routes recording Red-tailed Hawk in New England / Mid-Atlantic Coast.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
GranbyCONNECTICUT92024
ClarksvilleNEW-JERSEY61991
HarmonyMARYLAND52017
MansfieldMASSACHUSETTS52024
HuntingtonNEW-YORK52023
HarringtonDELAWARE42024
HolleyvilleDELAWARE42004
Milton 2DELAWARE42017
MadisonMARYLAND42022
CokesburyMARYLAND42024
LittletonMASSACHUSETTS42024
Wellfleet 2MASSACHUSETTS42024
GreenwichNEW-JERSEY42024
ManorvilleNEW-YORK42024
GreenwichCONNECTICUT32017
FrankfordDELAWARE32012
MiltonDELAWARE32016
PepperboxDELAWARE32016
Pepperbox 2DELAWARE32024
Kittery PtMAINE32024
CheltenhamMARYLAND32001
MillingtonMARYLAND32024
MatthewsMARYLAND32024
E DennisMASSACHUSETTS32019
East KingstonNEW-HAMPSHIRE32024

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.